Unlike other handicappers out there, we like to consider the Masked Prognosticator’s website a FREE educational tool for the serious football handicapper! No expensive phone numbers, no high-pressure salesmen.
Not yet anyway.
Jim Feist hasn’t called yet.
In that light, we want to share with you some of the Masked One’s treasured principles on NFL wagering. In a pathetic attempt to get hits, we will only publish a few of them at a time, forcing you to click back over and over again as the Masked Prognosticator drips his pearls of wisdom here on the Internet! (Yes, Virginia, there IS a catch!)
Hope you enjoy and heed this advice, and remember the most important axiom of all:
Bet with you head- not over it!!!
1. Keep it simple.
Don’t get bogged down in page after page of stats on each game. If you have to over-analyze a game to make a pick, maybe you shouldn’t pick it. Unless you plan on being a full time, professional handicapper. Trust us, you’ll most likely have the same lifespan in that career as a day trader.
Leave the grunt work to us.
2. You don’t have to play every game.
Last season we actually went 5 WEEKS throughout the year with no picks. The odds say the more you play, the more you will lose.
Be conservative and exercise discipline. If you play on more than 2 games a week, your walking on really thin ice.
Think about the odds: if you play one game, you have a 50% chance of winning. If you play two, you have a 25% chance of winning both, BUT STILL A 75% CHANCE OF WINNING AT LEAST ONE GAME. With some wise and prudent picking, you can make it better than 75.And the sweet thing is there is only a 25% chance of losing both games!
Splitting every week won’t make you money, since there’s the vig, but at least you won’t die penniless either. If you can have more 2-0 weekends than 0-2 ones, you are guaranteed to at least break even!
It’s when gamblers try and pick three games, or hit the dreaded “parley” that they end up like Omar Sharif. First off, your odds of hitting a parley (going 3-0) are 1 in 8. Unless your bookie is giving out 8-1 payouts or better, it’s a sucker bet.
In addition, if you just bet three games straight up, then the odds of having a split or better are only 50%. Your odds of having a losing week go from 25% up to 50%. And, the chances that you will lose at least one game are 87.5%!
While it is easier to increase your odds betting only 1 or 2 games, trying to come up with three winners takes more time and research, thus your chances of success generally will be LESS than 50%. Why the hell bother?
Use that pencil. Cross off that third game from your card. You’ll be thankful you did!
If you research wisely, you can increase the odds of making that split at least a worse case scenario, which ain’t bad.
Don’t spread yourself thin.
3. You won’t win every game.
There are no guarantees in the NFL. Handicapping isn’t about picking the against the spread winner of a football game. It is about picking the maximum two games on the weekly card that you feel you have the best chance of winning. If you lose a game, don’t kill yourself. Even we lose games- several at a time. Use the experience as a learning opportunity.
Sometimes even the perfect play simply goes wrong!
4. Systems before trends.
Critics scoff at using systems in the NFL. Yet a good NFL system backed by logic and history is a powerful handicapping tool since it applies to ANY NFL team in that particular set of circumstances. Then use statistics match-ups to verify the system makes sense. Finally, confirm your argument with trends.
But make sure you do your homework when it comes to matchups. Last year the lowly Bengals went into Baltimore off 2 straight shutout losses. The NFL System showed that the rare situation where NFL teams are shut out twice in a row is a 60%+ play. But the Bengals were a horrible team, so we laid off the game. Sure enough, the Bengals finally scored, but still got their asses handed to them by the future Super Bowl Champions. This leads us to Law #5:
5. Don’t back crappy teams.
The stars might all be lined up perfectly, but bad teams will still find a way to lose. To quote Alec Baldwin in “Glenngarry Glenn Ross”:”I’d wish you luck, but you wouldn’t know what to do with it.”
REVERSAL: Only when good teams in horrible scheduling situations are laying major lumber should you consider a bad team.
6. Injuries, schminjuries.
Injuries, except for the quarterback position, should be noted but not be used as the sole reason for your selection. For every NFL player, there are 10 ready to take his place, and to steal that job. That’s called motivation.
REVERSAL: QB injuries sometimes do matter. It depends on who the replacement is and how good the team is.
A bad team with a second string rookie quarterback will get crushed. But when it comes to a good team, we have found that the squad will rally around the sub, and play harder, if because of an injury.
On the other hand, maybe you might want to lay off these kinds of games!
7. Don't jump on the bandwagon.
Watch out for teams with good records but poor stats. Each week, keep a record of what each teams W-L record would be if the game was decided by total net yards gained. If Chicago is 9-2 and was outgained in 7 of those games, take a look at the other side. The Bears either have played an easy schedule or have had several turnovers fall their way. Bet against overrated teams, bet on underrated teams.
8. Make your play on Friday.
Jumping on a number too early in the week is fatal, unless it is so totally out of whack you can't pass it up. What is the quarterback DOES get injured?
But wait until Sunday, and the line could change up to a full point from Friday. Why Friday? By Saturday, most websites have their info up, and many radio sports touts have made their selections. The name of the game is to get an edge on the line. By the time Saturday rolls around, everyone and his brother has all the same info you do, and the line falls to where it usually should be. Then you lose the value.
9. Avoid Monday Night.
These are the most watched and most bet games, therefore Las Vegas sharpens their lines on Monday night. That's not to say there aren't good values on Monday Night games here and there- just that with 12-14 games on Sunday that are less scrutinized, why not place your money where you have the best chance of winning?
COMING SOON!! MORE HANDICAPPING ADVICE!