B E S T     D I R E C T O R

TOP FIVE • Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain • Bennett Miller - Capote • Paul Haggis - Crash • George Clooney - Good Night, And Good Luck. • Steven Spielberg - Munich COMMENTARY 7 February: Four out of five again - predicting Meirelles over Haggis. I'm happy with this group as well - the Miller nomination a bit of a surprise, but good to see newbies enter the mix. Who Will Win: Ang Lee - one of the greatest filmmakers of our time - is due for this award. Who Should Win: Again, for a variety of reasons, Ang Lee. PRE-NOMINATIONS COMMENTARY 25 January: Can someone please let me know how often, say in the last 15 years, the Best Picture/Best Director categories have matched up 3 out of 5? Maybe I've miscalculated in my predictions above. 12 January: This is a toss-up. The DGA didn't help matters really, because now I think Spielberg and Miller might be the lone directors without a Picture nod, somehting that happens every year, with either one or two directors sitting it out (most recently, it seems this has been a 4/5 split though). Alot of us are predicting Meirelles because of the shcoker he pulled with City of God a couple of years ago. Could he do it again? Hell yes. The Director's Branch obviously love the guy, and this film has some serious heat potential to break throuigh and surprise some of us. In my contenders list, only Haggis seems to be a major threat, and maybe even Jackson.

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TOP FIVE • Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain • Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote • David Strathairn - Good Night, And Good Luck. • Terrence Howard - Hustle and Flow • Joaquin Phoenix - Walk The Line COMMENTARY 7 February: Five out of five here - a very predictable group, with only some wavering on Terrence Howard's nod (people actually thought Russell Crowe would make it in here - um, no). In fact, I think Terrence Howard will be causing some angst in the offices of Sony Pictures Classics - Hoffman is the frontrunner, and has won everything, but this is Howard's year - what a great breakthrough - and he has a lot of passionate support that not even Heath Ledger has... Who Will Win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman. It's inevitable, the lock of the year, and overdue recognition. Who Should Win: Terrence Howard. PRE-NOMINATIONS COMMENTARY 12 January: I think this is a no-brainer, with only Howard as the wildcard. But, even with the lack of precursorial support (wow, I just made up a word!), Howard has had an extraordinary year, and I think he will get this nod because of his amazing breakthrough. The big question here is whether anyone (Heath?) can beat Hoffman, and whether there will be a massive snub to shake things up (maybe letting in the superior Ralph Fiennes).

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TOP FIVE • Judi Dench - Mrs Henderson Presents • Keira Knightley - Pride & Prejudice • Charlize Theron - North Country • Felicity Huffman - Transamerica • Reese Witherspoon - Walk The Line COMMENTARY 23 February: Four out of five here - missing Knightley for Zhang. Who Will Win: Reese Witherspoon. It's inevitable, the lock of the year, and overdue recognition for Hollywood's Number 2 "go-to girl" for romantic comedies and blockbusters. Plus she's cute as a button. Who Should Win: Keira Knightley. So sue me. I never lied her before, but in this flick, she was fantastic. I don't buy all of the Felicity Huffman hype. Sorry. PRE-NOMINATIONS COMMENTARY 12 January: This category has hardly changed over the last couple of months, expect for other contenders falling by the wayside. If anyone is going to crack this group, it will be Keira Knightley in for Zhang Ziyi, who has been so much better in many other films. My question is will Joan Allen come out of nowhere and grab a nod, like some actors have done before (Marcia Gay Harden or Toni Collette anyone?)

B E S T     S U P P O R T I N G
A C T O R

TOP FIVE • Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain • Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man • Matt Dillon - Crash • William Hurt - A History of Violence • George Clooney - Syriana COMMENTARY 23 February: Four out of five here - missing Hurt for Howard. Maybe I shouldn't have predicted Terrence Howard for the double whammy, but his perf in Crash was a highlight, and he was surely close to achieving the double nods. This category (thank God) is the most unpredictable of the "major" categories - really anyone could win this (bar William Hurt one presumes). I'm going for the shock of the night, a'la Juliette Binoche. Who Will Win: Jake Gyllenhaal. Maybe the film will carry him over the line. Matt Dillon is a real threat here though, and the two "frontrunners" Giamatti (a "makeup" Oscar at best) and Clooney (a "consolation" Oscar at best) are of course, in the hot seat. Who Should Win: Matt Dillon. PRE-NOMINATIONS COMMENTARY 25 January: Bumped Terrence Howard up in place of Bob Hoskins. Mistake? Probably - surely Howard is not going to get 2 nods in one year. 12 January: These seem to be the likely five - with Gyllenhaal and Giamatti in the best position for a nod (Please, God, don't let the Academy snub Giamatti for a third consecutive year!). Then again, any of the four contenders above may have a shot (although, maybe my Geoffrey Rush listing is just wishful, patriotic thinking on my part). I'd love to see Langella recognised here.

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A C T R E S S

TOP FIVE • Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain • Catherine Keener - Capote • Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener • Amy Adams - Junebug • Frances McDormand - North Country COMMENTARY 23 February: Five out of five here - Not a difficult feat by any means, but come on, in what universe was Frances McDormand not going to get a nomination for such a baity (but not really worthy) performance? If I had to choose one person I was rooting for the most, it would be Weisz, so bring it on! Who Will Win: Rachel Weisz. Steamrolling her way to a win. I hope. Who Should Win: Rachel Weisz. PRE-NOMINATIONS COMMENTARY 12 January: Lo and behold, this is actually the toughest and most competitive acting category. In a just world, Anne Hathaway (Brokeback Mountain) would also be a contender (I hate it when ONE person from the major cast gets bubkes in terms of recognition. It's very Sandra Oh, and I don't like it). Realistically, only Maria Bello has a clear-cut shot here from the contenders group. I think there will be rioting amongst Oscar-watchers because Bello is going to miss out again (after being overlooked for her heralded turn in The Cooler). And see how Johanssen, who many experts were calling as the winner as early as October, has faded out of the race entirely. What does this girl have to do for a bit of Oscar lovin'? She was inexplicably snubbed for her excellent work in Lost in Translation, not to mention A Love Song For Bobby Long and Girl with the Pearl Earring - all Oscar-worthy performances. If I were her, I'd be pissed. Williams, Keener and McDormand seem safe here - and they should be, they deserve to be here (Keener for her body of work moreso than perhaps her single performance in Capote). My favorite, Weisz, is assured of a nod, and is the frontrunner to win. And unbelievably, Amy Adams has amassed quite a bit of support, critical nods and the SAG and Globe nods to assure her of her place. A miracle really - such a tiny film, the first film to start campaigning - it has paid off.

B E S T     A D A P T E D
S C R E E N P L A Y

TOP FIVE • Brokeback Mountain • Capote • The Constant Gardener • A History of Violence • Munich COMMENTARY 23 February: Five out of five in my predictions. Who Will Win: Brokeback Mountain. What a tough category of 5 very worthy contenders. But Ossana and legend McMurtry have this in the bag. Who Should Win: The Constant Gardener, only becuase I liked the film a little more than Brokeback. But even I can see that Ossana and McMurtry really did a fine job in adapting Proulx's novella. PRE-NOMINATIONS COMMENTARY 12 January: Besides the Syriana snub (due to its placement in the Original category), I think this speaks for itself. I am going out on a limb in picking Violence here, but I think the writers will get this film more than anybody else.

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S C R E E N P L A Y

TOP FIVE • Crash • Good Night, And Good Luck. • Match Point • The Squid and the Whale • Syriana COMMENTARY 23 February: Four out of five, missing Syriana for Cinderella Man. I thought the AMPAS/studio bungle of Gaghan's script would cost him. I'm glad he made it in. Who Will Win: Crash. I'm not happy about it, given that all of this talk of the Academy needing to award Clooney somewhere could have been sorted out by giving him this award, his most deserving. Who Should Win: Good Night, and Good Luck. PRE-NOMINATIONS COMMENTARY 12 January: No changes here - if Match Point is going to score anywhere, it will be with the writers branch. Otherwise, I don't see any of these contenders strong enough to knock off one of my five picks.

B E S T     D O C U M E N T A R Y
F E A T U R E

TOP FIVE • Darwin's Nightmare • Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room • March of the Penguins • Murderball • Street Fight COMMENTARY 23 February: 2 out of five in my predictions, only picking Murderball and Penguins. Who Will Win: March of the Penguins. Many people are seeing this category as a tussle between the box office might of those cute little Penguins vs. the two other well-known entries Enron and Murderball. I find it hard to believe anybody has any cluse unless they were privy to AMPAS screenings of the five films. It's a guess at best. Who Should Win: Murderball.

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F E A T U R E

TOP THREE • The Corpse Bride • Howl's Moving Castle • Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were Rabbit COMMENTARY 23 February: Three out of three in my predictions. Who Will Win: Wallace & Gromit. Nick Park strikes again. Who Should Win: The Corpse Bride, a real surprise for me - a great little entertaining film. PRE-NOMINATIONS COMMENTARY January 13: This is really a toss-up: Wallace and Corpse are in. No doubts in my mind. It's that third slot - which I think will go to the legendary Miyazaki in favour of the inferior Chicken Little.

B E S T     A N I M A T E D
S H O R T     F I L M

TOP THREE • 9 • Badgered • The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation • One Man Band • The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello COMMENTARY 23 February: I feel vindicated that I correctly called four out of five in my predictions. A category that is always overlooked by many pundits, I love it - one of my favorites. Who Will Win: The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello. Really tough to choose. For a brilliant break down of the category, read Steve Pond's Oscar Beat column at LA Times' The Envelope. My choice is for two reasons - Morello is most inventive and has the most buzz. Plus, it's Australian. Sue me. Next in line would be The Moon and the Son. Who Should Win: The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello. PRE-NOMINATIONS COMMENTARY January 23: I really love this category each year - full of great surprises and creativity - devoid of any real campaigning - it always comes up with some wonderfully different choices. There seems to be a lot of buzz for 9, and Pixar's only animation contender this year One Man Band, as well as the Australian Film Institute-winning and BAFTA-nominated The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello (pictured) - a truly innovative and visionary work of art.

B E S T     D O C U M E N T A R Y
S H O R T     S U B J E C T

TOP THREE • The Death of Kevin Carter: Casualty of the Bang Bang Club • God Sleeps in Rwanda • The Mushroom Club • A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin COMMENTARY 23 February: Two out of four in my predictions. Who Will Win: God Sleeps in Rwanda. Having no way to see these films, a pure guess based on a still-hot issue. PRE-NOMINATIONS COMMENTARY January 30: This is really a crapshoot unfortunately - not enough publicity to give us informed opinions. Thanks to Nat at The Film Experience for the heads up.

B E S T     L I V E     A C T I O N
S H O R T     F I L M

TOP THREE • Ausreisser • Cashback • The Last Farm • Our Time Is Up • Six Shooter COMMENTARY 23 February: The hardest category to predict, with literally hundreds of short films in contention, and the short list not released to the public by AMPAS. I picked none of these. Who Will Win: Our Time Is Up. PRE-NOMINATIONS COMMENTARY January 23: Probably the hardest of categories (apart from Documentary Short Subject, which I do not include on this site for that reason) to discuss. I usually have a look at the short films entered in competition and the short films that win prizes at the Cannes Film Festival, the AFI Festival Los Angeles, the International Film Festivals in Berlin, Seattle, Toronto, Edinburgh, Melbourne and Fort Lauderdale, as well as the internationally renowned Tropfest and the nominees for the BAFTA Awards.

B E S T     F O R E I G N
L A N G U A G E     F I L M

TOP FIVE • Don't Tell (Italy) • Sophie Scholl: The Final Days (Germany) • Joyeux Noel (France) • Paradise Now (Palestine) • Tsotsi (South Africa) COMMENTARY 23 February: Three out of five in my predictions. I picked Belgium's The Child and Hungary's Fateless, which were surely in the running, over the German and Italian films. But what great thing for Cristina Comencini's La Bestia Nel Cuore, or Don't Tell, to make it in the list. Viva Italia!. Who Will Win: Tsotsi. South Africa will finally take home an Oscar in this category, and it has been a while for an African film to do so (wasn't the last winner from Africa the Ivory Coast entry Black and White in Colour?) I think the "controversy" over the Palestinian entry might have contributed to scuttling the chances of Paradise Now. Who Should Win: Don't Tell. PRE-NOMINATIONS COMMENTARY January 13: This category is traditionally the hardest to predict for most people. What do the Academy's foreign films branch usually choose? Holocaust films. Films with charming cute little children in leading roles. French films. Sweeping epics. Wildcard entries. Topical films. Your guess is as good as mine.

B E S T     O R I G I N A L     S C O R E

TOP FIVE • Gustavo Santaolalla - Brokeback Mountain • Alberto Iglesias - The Constant Gardener • John Williams - Memoirs of a Geisha • John Williams - Munich • Dario Marianelli - Pride & Prejudice COMMENTARY 23 February: I picked Thomas Newman's Cinderella Man and King Kong by James Newton Howard over surprise entries Pride & Prejudice and The Constant Gardener. For an in depth analysis of the music categories, CLICK HERE. PRE-NOMINATIONS COMMENTARY January 13: My question is, will this usually staid and impenetrable branch let anyone new in? With Jorge Drexler's win last year for "Al Otro Lado Del Rio" in the Song category, Gustavo Santaolalla's exclusion for his Motorcycle Diaries score last year just seems plain wrong. So, I am hoping the Academy rectifies this mistake and nominates Santaolalla's beautifully minimal Brokeback score. Then we have the usual suspects, who all put out great work this year. I am hoping Danny Elfman can break into this group with one (or both) of two of his best scores ever, and I wish the best score of the year (Batman Begins) was eligible. Same goes for James Horner's The New World - not eligible.

B E S T     O R I G I N A L     S O N G

TOP FIVE • “In the Deep” (Kathleen “Bird” York & Michael Becker) - Crash • “It's Hard Out There For a Pimp” (Three 6 Mafia) - Hustle & Flow • “Travelin’ Thru” (Dolly Parton) - Transamerica COMMENTARY 23 February: I picked the other Hustle & Flow ditty over this one by Three 6 Mafia, so two out of three for me. For an in depth analysis of the music categories, CLICK HERE. PRE-NOMINATIONS COMMENTARY January 23: Another particularly difficult category to predict is this one - in which the Academy used to go for the big ballads, the Oscar-bait songs from major recording artists and the Disney songs, almost by rote, year-in, year-out. A recent trend seems to be moving away from that, with some more eclectic, as well as more foreign-language choices, making this category a really interesting one. It seems that these songs are the consensus frontrunners. I think any of these 9 listed above could make it in.

B E S T     C I N E M A T O G R A P H Y

TOP FIVE • Wally Pfister - Batman Begins • Rodrigo Prieto - Brokeback Mountain • Robert Elswit - Good Night, and Good Luck. • Dion Beebe - Memoirs of a Geisha • Emmanuel Lubezki - The New World COMMENTARY 23 February: Four out of five in my predictions, picking Kong's Lesnie over Batman's Pfister. Who Will Win: Dion Beebe - Memoirs of a Geisha. One of my favorite categories, I have been umm-ing and aah-ing over who will take the win on Oscar night. A sensible argument could be mad eout for any of these guys. Pfister's work is astonishing, Prieto's is beautiful, Elswitt utilises the B & W brilliantly, Beebe's light work is lavish and Lubezki is due for a win. In the end, I think Geisha is going to triumph in many of the tech caetgories becuase it is just so beautiful to look at, plus Beebe should have been nommed for his work on Collateral last year. Go Aussie! Who Should Win: Wally Pfister - Batman Begins. PRE-NOMINATIONS COMMENTARY January 23: With Batman Begins, Brokeback Mountain, Good Night and Good Luck, King Kong and Memoirs of as Geisha nominated by the ASC Guild, it is clear that at least a few of these will make it in this category. I am surprised that Emmanuel Lubezki's work in The New World wasn't recognised byt he guild, which I think will be rectified by the Academy. Similarly, Cesar Charlone (Gardener) and Janusz Kaminski (Munich) are also with a pretty good shot at a nod too. If it were up to me, this would be a cakewalk for Wally Pfister's stunning work in Batman Begins.

B E S T     F I L M     E D I T I N G

TOP FIVE • Daniel Hanley & Mike Hill - Cinderella Man • Hughes Winborne - Crash • Claire Simpson - The Constant Gardener • Stephen Mirrione - Good Night, and Good Luck. • Michael Kahn - Munich COMMENTARY 23 February: Four out of five in my predictions, not thinking that Peroni's work on Brokeback would be snubbed. Who Will Win: Claire Simpson - The Constant Gardener. In a two horse race with Crash - which should be the senible pick given that it is a Best Picture nominee. Who Should Win: Claire Simpson - The Constant Gardener, although I liked Michael Kahn's Munich work as well. PRE-NOMINATIONS COMMENTARY January 23: This is a category most Oscarwatchers look at with more interest than the usual so-called "technical" category - the editors have a remarkably good track record for matching the Best Picture category. That said, I have gone with these choices becuase I think they are the best edited pictures of the year. No rhyme or reason in terms of trying the "predict" these nominees, but I gotta go with my gut on this one.

B E S T     A R T     D I R E C T I O N

TOP FIVE • James Bissell - Good Night, and Good Luck. • Stuart Craig - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire • Grant Major - King Kong • John Myhre - Memoirs of a Geisha • Sarah Greenwood - Pride & Prejudice COMMENTARY 23 February: A paltry two out of five in my predictions, picking Batman Begins, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory and Narnia over Good Night, Harry freakin Potter and Pride. Who Will Win: King Kong. Surely Kong's stunning 1930s New York will push it over the edge in this category. Only the formidable Geisha has a shot at killing the beast (OK, enough of the shitty puns). Who Should Win: King Kong. PRE-NOMINATIONS COMMENTARY January 23: This category is an embarrasment of riches - so many great contenders here, and I have not even listed the work from Aart Directors Guild Award-nominated Constand Gardener, Crash, Syriana and Walk The Line, which would all be great additions to this category. But, I gotta draw the line somewhere, and I just can't see the Academy passing up these 5 films, albeit all fantasy-period films, for recognition.

B E S T     C O S T U M E     D E S I G N

TOP FIVE • Gabriela Pescucci - Charlie and the Chocolate Factory • Colleen Atwood - Memoirs of a Geisha • Sandy Powell - Mrs Henderson Presents • Jacqueline Durran - Pride & Prejudice • Arianne Phillips - Walk the Line COMMENTARY 23 February: Hallelujah - five out of five in my predictions. Who Will Win: Memoirs of a Geisha. Colleen Atwood's work seems to have the highest profile of these nominees this year, but past Oscar winner Pescucci could prove to be a contender, given that she is the sole nominee from Charlie, a well received film deserving of merit in the tech categories. Who Should Win: Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. PRE-NOMINATIONS COMMENTARY January 23: I am having great difficulty picking the five liekly nominees here - again, many great contenders to choose from, and many Oscar favorites that could easily make it on name recognition alone. My question here is whether the Academy will pass Trisha Biggar's work over again for her excellent and imaginative work in the Star Wars prequels. My bet is yes. And I am also taking a gamble that the Academy, especially the costume designers, will want to reward Pride & Prejudice somewhere.

B E S T     M A K E U P

TOP THREE • Cinderella Man • The Chronicles of Narnia • Star Wars Episode 3: Revenge of the Sith COMMENTARY 23 February: two out of three in my predictions, picking The Libertine over Cinderella Man. Who Will Win: Star Wars Episode 3: Revenge of the Sith. I'm going against the grain here, and I will probably lose out, but I am really rotting for Sith to take this one, in consolation for the film not receiving any other Oscar love. By far the biggest favorite here is Narnia. Who Should Win: Star Wars Episode 3: Revenge of the Sith. PRE-NOMINATIONS COMMENTARY These are the official "bake-off" finalists. I am taking a bit of a gamble with Libertine - lately, the makeup category has thrown us a few curveballs, and I think this will be one of those.

B E S T     S O U N D     M I X I N G

TOP FIVE • The Chronicles of Narnia • King Kong • Memoirs of a Geisha • Walk the Line • War of the Worlds COMMENTARY 23 February: Three out of five in my predictions, picking Batman Begins and Crash over Narnia and Geisha. Who Will Win: King Kong. Most pundits seem to be picking Walk The Line, using the "musicals win" theory - a good one, but how much support does this film have? I am betting not enough, and one of the "loud" pics will win - Kong. Who Should Win: War of the Worlds. PRE-NOMINATIONS COMMENTARY Your guess is as good as mine here - I would say that these five are at least the frontrunners.

B E S T     S O U N D     E D I T I N G

TOP THREE • King Kong • Memoirs of a Geisha • War of the Worlds COMMENTARY 23 February: Two out of three in my predictions, picking Sith over Geisha. Who Will Win: King Kong. Loud is proud. Who Should Win: King Kong. PRE-NOMINATIONS COMMENTARY These are the official "bake-off" finalists, and these three picks are the loudest - which is what the Academy seems to go for more often than not. I am surprised by the lack of animated contenders - which have been showing up here lately.

B E S T     V I S U A L     E F F E C T S

TOP THREE • King Kong • The Chronicles of Narnia • War of the Worlds COMMENTARY 23 February: Two out of three in my predictions, picking Sith over Narnia. They picked Narnia over Sith? Are the VFX branch on crack? I remember watching Narnia in embarassment over how shitty the effects came across on the big screen. What a terible choice for a nomination. Who Will Win: King Kong. Anything else would be a joke (even though War's effects are also top notch. Who Should Win: King Kong. PRE-NOMINATIONS COMMENTARY These are the official "bake-off" finalists, and I can't imagine these three stunners not making the list - the effects in the three frontrunners above just blew my mind, and I'm sure, if all went well at the bake-off, the VFX committee will agree.