QQQ-a represents short term timing with position reversals two times per week on average.  (For a less hectic approach, the mid term market timing system might be an alternative, click:  K.T.'s mid term market timing for RYDEX, ProFunds, etc.)

After another period of unsatisfactory performance, a thorough model walkthrough was made late April 2004.  The existing basis was scrutinised and applied over an extended period with data going back to August 2000.  Removals, repairs and substitution of parameters were undertaken.  The final result, when employing the complete set of revised rules and input data for the whole period, was

an astonishingly smooth and linear curve representing some 100-fold compounding of an investment made in August 2000.

Still being painfully aware that back test is back test, and that real trading is quite another game, this even more tells me to stick with the model and not be tempted to overrule the signals being generated.   

The model maintains the feature introduced in July 2003 where, under certain market conditions, taking a new Short or Long position will depend on whether QQQ gaps 1.05% (or more) up or down, respectively, at the opening.  These situations are well defined and will as before be pointed out in advance when relevant. 

QQQ

at open

   QQQ

  at close

  Profunds

  Ultra OTC

   Profunds

    Ultra BullBear

  Rydex (a.m.)

  Velocity Venture

  Rydex (a.m.)

  Titan Tempest

The graph below shows back test results based on the April 2004 revision (blue line) followed by real life performance (red line).  Ref. TimerTrac above for actuals graphs 07/2003 –> 04/2004.

Development since July 2003 (QQQ closing prices):

The QQQ 'share' reflects the development of the NASDAQ 100 index. Trading QQQ is just easy as trading ordinary shares - it is done in exactly the same way, through the same channels.

The risk of QQQ investments is similar to investing in technology oriented unit trusts or mutual funds. The advantages are higher flexibility and marginal costs.

General information: Index shares QQQ

Through any internet stockbroker in USA one can buy as well as sell short the QQQ, and thereby benefit in upturns and in negative market periods.

This site is updated when a new position is to be taken, well in time before the US markets open.  Send an e-mail if you wish to receive mail notification for QQQ-a switches: kt@kt-timing.com

   Trades with QQQ

QQQ-a
at open

Buy and hold

Performance 21.7-31.12 2003

22 %

17 %

Performance 2004 ytd

6 %

-1 %

Cumulative gains since 21.7.2003

29 %

15 %

The main objective of the model is to achieve unsurpassed long term performance based on trades made with opening prices on the signal days.  Stop loss or trades during the session are not applied. As demonstrated by the TimerTrac graphs, the model’s performance has varied depending on whether trades were

made at open, early in the session (as for Rydex a.m.) or at market closing prices (“QQQ at close” and Profunds).  However, it is expected that over a longer period the original intention and design basis with trades at the open / early hours will produce the best returns, and under no circumstance give negative or below buy-and-hold performance.

Disclaimer: The owner of this site takes no responsibility for risk and possible losses on investments based on views here presented. Each individual is always fully responsible for his / her own investment decisions and which equities or financial instruments to trade.