Model Portfolios Data - Examples

9.1 Assumptions | 9.2 Comparing portfolios | 10. Model portfolios

10. Model Asset Allocation Portfolios - Examples

This section lists a number of model asset allocation portfolios found in various references in the previous sections of this Web site as well as on the Web. Most portfolios use index funds while some do not. Some give broad asset class allocations - leaving it to you to select particular investments (hint you could use index funds). The portfolios within each reference are listed by age group or age from retirement, risk-tolerance and tax status (funds are held in a tax-sheltered account or not). In all cases, we strongly recommend you read the original book or article to fully understand the conditions under which the portfolio was created.

Remember, these are only starting points to give you ideas for how you might begin to construct a portfolio suitable for you - taking into account your age, years to retirement, and risk tolerance, availability of tax-deferred accounts, and other factors. Many of the books and selected article references and links in this Web site discuss how to go about this.

Disclaimer on using this Web site Although the information on this Web site is based on information from reliable sources, we do not guarantee their accuracy or the accuracy of this Web site. It is not intended to be the primary basis for making investment decisions nor to provide advice meeting the individual investment needs of any investor. When equity (and any other "risky") investments are discussed, it is assumed that they are held for the long term. There is no assurance that investments discussed, in whole or in part, will actually perform as indicated by the risk/return characteristics outlined. Past results do not necessarily indicate future results.

Check the Assumptions of the models (Section 9.1) so you understand the basis of their construction and modification.

The portfolios are summarized in the following table by their various characteristics.

Portfolio name Index based Specific funds Oriented for taxable
or non-taxable
Specified by risk-tolerance Specified by age Specified by years
to retirement
Armstrong: index yes yes both yes - -
Bernstein: index yes yes both yes - -
Coffeehouse: index yes yes both complexity - -
AAII: Index asset alloc both no both - - -
Morningstar: index or great mgrs yes yes both yes - -
Morningstar: risk tolerance no yes both yes yes -
C. Schwab: risk tolerance - no both yes - -
Evans & Malkiel: index by age yes yes both yes yes -
Newsweek 401K Quinn/RiskMetrics: age - no non-taxable yes yes -
Fortune 401K: age - lists of
non-index funds
non-taxable - yes -
USAA: age to retirement - no - yes - yes
Money Mag (11/2002): age to retirement - no - yes - yes
Clements (2003): risk tolerance yes no both yes - -
Swedroe (2001): Efficient portfolio yes yes both yes - -
Malkiel (2003): age yes yes both yes yes -

  1. William Bernstein, The four pillers of Investing: lessons for building a winning portfolio, 2002. These four portfolio show examples when when you are constrained by availability of taxable or non-taxable (eg. 401K, IRA, etc.) accounts as well as by age and whether the assets are in taxable or tax-deferred accounts.

    1. W. Bernstein: Taxable Ted portfolio (50/50)
    2. W. Bernstein: (Tax-) Sheltered Sam portfolio (60/40)
    3. W. Bernstein: In-between Ida portfolio (50/50)
    4. W. Bernstein: Young Yvonne portfolio (60/40)

  2. Frank Armstrong III, The Informed Investor: A hype-free guide to constructing a sound financial portfolio, 2002. Armstrong uses DFA funds. DFA funds are not directly accessible to most individuals because of their minimum purchase requirements ($2,000,000). However, they are available from some fee-only planners, generally with a 1% fee.

    Therefore, we created an alternative lower-cost portfolio by substituting Vanguard funds where possible and low cost no-load (i.e., no 12b-1, low expense ratios) funds that maintain their equity asset class focus when there was no corresponding index fund. This lets us approximate the DFA type index funds, although it does not cover the asset classes quite as well.

    To show how one can use the same relative asset allocation within major classes (i.e. equities and fixed-income), we computed 5 different ranges of (equities/fixed-income) using the same relative allocations for both the DFA funds and the Vanguard funds. They differ only in the ratio of (equities/fixed-income).

    1. Frank Armstrong portfolio (80/20) DFA funds
    2. Frank Armstrong portfolio (60/40) DFA funds
    3. Frank Armstrong portfolio (50/50) DFA funds
    4. Frank Armstrong portfolio (40/60) DFA funds
    5. Frank Armstrong portfolio (20/80) DFA funds

    6. Frank Armstrong portfolio (80/20) Vanguard
    7. Frank Armstrong portfolio (60/40) Vanguard
    8. Frank Armstrong portfolio (50/50) Vanguard
    9. Frank Armstrong portfolio (40/60) Vanguard
    10. Frank Armstrong portfolio (20/80) Vanguard

  3. Bill Schultheis, The "Coffeehouse Portfolio", is an all index fund portfolio described in The Coffeehouse Portfolio, Seven index funds for bulls and bears by Paul Farrell, CBS.MarketWatch.com, Nov 15, 2002.

  4. The AAII Asset Allocation Portfolio, by John Markese, describes 3 all-fund asset-allocation portfolios at different levels of complexity in Your mutual fund portfolio: choosing the level of complexity by John Markese, AAII Journal, Nov 24(10) 4-6, 2002. They may be constructed from index funds, ETFs, or other mutual funds. A related article ( Asset allocation approaches: building from the bottom up by James B Cloonan, AAII Journal, Oct 24(9) 27-30, 2002) suggests specific (mostly Vanguard although two are ETFs IWO and IWN) funds as surrogates for some of these asset classes. These surrogates are specified after each class in the second table. There are a number of assumptions and suggestions on how to use these portfolios in the articles.

    Asset Level I Level II Level III
    US stocks Tot US stock Idx VTMSX S&P 500 Idx VFINX
    Ext. Market Idx
    S&P 500 Idx VFINX
    Mid/Sm-cap growth VIGSX
    Mid/Sm-cap value VISVX
    Sector technology FSPTX
    Sector biotech/health FBIOX
    Sector REIT VGSIX
    International stocks Tot Intl. stock Idx VGTSX European stock Idx VESIX
    Pacific stock Idx VPACX
    Emerging mkts stock Idx VEIEX
    International stock fund VGTSX
    Emerging mkts stock Idx VEIEX
    Bonds Tot US Gov or muni bond Idx VBMFX Short-term US Gov or muni Idx VSIFX or muni Idx VWSTX
    Long-term US Gov or muni Idx VUSTX or muni Idx VWLTX
    Corporate high-yield fund VWEHX
    Long-term US Gov VUSTX or muni Idx VWLTX
    Money market fund Money market fund Money market fund Money market fund

    In the October 2002 article, Cloonan suggests four portfolios (as of 8/30/2002) with increased complexity (and increased estimated returns).

    Asset class Portfolio 1 % Portfolio 2 % Portfolio 3 % Portfolio 4 %
    Total Stock Market (VTMSX) 60% 80% - -
    Large-Cap Growth (VIGRX) - - 20.0% 20.0%
    Large-Cap Value (VIVAX) - - 20.0% 20.0%
    Small-Cap Growth (IWO/ VIGSX) - - 12.5% 10.0%
    Small-Cap Value (IWN/ VISVX) - - 12.5% 10.0%
    Bonds (** Tot Bond Idx VBMFX) 40.0% ** 20.0% ** 25.0% 20.0%
    Cash - - 10.0% 10.0%
    Gold Stocks (VGPMX) 0% 0% 0% 10.0%

    
    
    
    

  5. Morningstar Fund Investor Feb, 2002 - model portfolios. They divide the portfolios by index based versus entirely managed funds based. However, almost all managed funds have not shown the ability to continually to do well over long periods of time.

    1. Morningstar FI 2/02 Index anchored (60/40)
    2. Morningstar FI 2/02 Index anchored IRA (62/38)
    3. Morningstar FI 2/02 Great Managers (76/24), non-indexed based
    4. Morningstar FI 2/02 Great Managers IRA (82/18), non-indexed based

  6. Morningstar Fund Investor May, 2002 - model portfolios. They divide the three portfolios by aggressiveness which could be used for different age groups.

    1. Morningstar FI 5/02 Aggressive Wealth Maker (82/18) - aggressive growth, non-indexed based
    2. Morningstar FI 5/02 Wealth Maker (62/38) - growth, non-indexed based
    3. Morningstar FI 5/02 Wealth Keeper (34/66) - conservative, non-indexed based

    These three non-index fund portfolios were updated with a few new funds and have changed slightly from May 2002 to September 2002 in Morningstar book. The book goes into details on the construction of these portfolios. Note that these additional expenses in continually changing funds (because they are no longer available, are not "good", etc.) can add up and detract from your total return.

    1. Morningstar book 03 Aggressive Wealth Maker (79/21) - aggressive growth, non-indexed based
    2. Morningstar book 03 Wealth Maker (62/38) - growth, non-indexed based
    3. Morningstar book 03 Wealth Keeper (34/66) - conservative, non-indexed based

  7. Schwab 401k Tools suggested allocations by risk tolerance - Schwab 401k allocations by risk tolerance. However, they do not specify particular sub-asset classes. Neither does it take into account the mix of assets in taxable and non-taxable accounts (often the situation). If you select funds to populate these basic asset allocations, you can look up summary fund statistics for your portfolio at www.quicken.com.

    * Note: "Avg Return", "Best Year", "Worst Year" are for 1970-2001. See Schwab Web site for details and for their definitions of risk tolerance (click on the Risk Tolerance).

    Risk Tolerance % Stocks % Large Cap Stocks % Small Cap Stocks % International
    Stocks
    % Bonds % Cash % Avg Return* % Best Year* % Worst Year*
    Aggressive 95% 40% 25% 30% 0% 5% 11.91% 41.74% -24.11%
    Moderately Aggressive 80% 35% 20% 25% 15% 5% 11.56% 36.09% -19.38%
    Moderate 60% 30% 15% 15% 30% 10% 10.93% 29.65% -13.09%
    Moderately Conservative 40% 20% 10% 10% 45% 15% 10.14% 25.49% -6.64%
    Conservative 20% 15% 0% 5% 55% 25% 9.06% 21.76% -1.27%
    Short Term 0% 0% 0% 0% 40% 60% 7.5% 17.96% 0.28%

  8. R. E. Evans and B. G. Malkiel, Earn More (Sleep Better): The Index fund solution - A step-by-step investors guide, 1999. These define the portfolio by approximate age groups.

    1. Evans & Malkiel 30 year old earning (80/20) - aggressive growth
    2. Evans & Malkiel 50 year old (73/27) - growth
    3. Evans & Malkiel 65 year old retired (60/40) - conservative

  9. Newsweek J.B. Quinn/RiskMetrics suggested allocations by age - broad allocations suggested in "Burned, Why we have to fix the 401K", Jane Bryant Quinn, Newsweek, August 19, 2002, pp 25-31. These are their suggested models for broad asset allocation within a 401K. However, it does not specify particular sub-asset classes. Neither does it take into account the mix of assets in taxable and non-taxable accounts (often the situation). If you select funds to populate these basic asset allocations, you can look up summary fund statistics for your portfolio at www.quicken.com.

    Stocks= [US stocks (29.20%) + Foreign stocks (4.47%)].
    Fixed-income= [Cash (4.69%) + Bonds (61.44%)].

    Age range Category % Stocks % Bonds % Cash Notes
    26-45 Aggressive 100% 0% 0% higher-risk stocks with greater growth potential
    46-55 Growth 90% 10% 0% Peak earning years. Broadly diversity stock portfolio
    56-65 Balanced 60% 30% 10% house paid off, kids out of college, focus on higher dividend yielding stocks
    66-75 Conservative 10% 70% 20% higher dividend yielding utilities during early retirement years
    76+ Short Term 0% 10% 90% no wages, supersafe portfolio, but will be ok with what is left

  10. Fortune Magazine suggested three allocations by age in David Stires, 401(K) First Aid Kit, Time for a Checkup, October 28, 2002. The suggested allocations are part of the article and are entitled 401(K) First Aid Kit: Reslicing the Pie. These are their suggested models for broad asset allocation within a 401K. However, it does not specify particular sub-asset classes. Neither does it take into account the mix of assets in taxable and non-taxable accounts (often the situation). If you select funds to populate these basic asset allocations, you can look up summary fund statistics for your portfolio at www.quicken.com.

    Age % Large Cap US Stock % Mid Cap US Stock % Small US Cap Stock % Foreign Stock % Fixed income
    30 year old 25% 20% 20% 20% 15%
    45 year old 20% 20% 15% 15% 30%
    60 year old 20% 20% 10% 10% 40%

  11. USAA suggests three allocations by age to retirement in USAA.com Smart Solutions. However, they do not specify particular sub-asset classes. Neither does it take into account the mix of assets in taxable and non-taxable accounts (often the situation). If you select funds to populate these basic asset allocations, you can look up summary fund statistics for your portfolio at www.quicken.com.

    Age from
    retirement
    % Investment grade
    bonds
    % High-yield
    bonds
    % Large Cap US Stock % Small US Cap Stock % International Stock % Emerging Markets Stock Notes
    Aggressive Model
    10 or more years
    10% 10% 45% 15% 15% 5% Growth extremely important, high volatility ok, inflation high concern
    Moderate Model
    5-9 years
    40% 10% 30% 10% 10% 0% Growth & Income top priorities, moderate volatility ok, inflation moderate concern
    Conservative Model
    5 or less years
    80% 0% 20% 0% 0% 0% Income top priority, low volatility, inflation minor concern

  12. Money Mag. Nov, 2002 suggests three allocations by age to retirement in money.cnn.com in an article "Rules for rebalancing", by Penelope Wang, Money, Nov 2002, 97-100. However, they do not specify particular sub-asset classes. They do suggest how to rebalance taking tax-deferred account into accounty. If you select funds to populate these basic asset allocations, you can look up summary fund statistics for your portfolio at www.quicken.com.

    Age from
    retirement
    % Bonds % Large Cap Stocks % Mid Cap Stocks % Small Cap Stocks % International Stock Notes
    Aggressive Model
    10 or more years
    20% 40% 15% 10% 15% For investors with 20 to 30 years until retirement
    Moderate Model
    5-9 years
    35% 35% 10% 10% 10% For investors with 5 to 10 years until retirement
    Conservative Model
    5 or less years
    50% 36% 0% 7% 7% For investores who are already retired

  13. Clements (2003): risk tolerance suggests three allocations by risk tolerance in his book. He recommends funds from: Barclays, Bridgeway, DFA, Dreyfus, Fidelity, T.Rowe Price, Schwab, TIAA-CREF, USAA, Vanguard. In these portfolios, he does not differentiate between Mid-cap and Small-cap which are lumped together under "Small-cap", and he does does not differentiate between value and growth stocks. We have suggested representative funds from Vanguard with links to Morningstar.

    Risk Tolerance
    % Money Market fund
    % Short-term Corp. Bonds
    VFSTX
    % TIPS Bonds
    VIPSX
    % Bond Market Index
    VBMFX
    % High-yeld Bonds
    VWEHX
    % REITs
    VGSIX
    % Large Cap Stocks
    VFINX
    % Small Cap Stocks
    NAESX
    % Foreign Stocks
    VGTSX
    % Developed Foreign Stocks
    VDMIX
    % Emerging Markets Stocks
    VEIEX
    Aggressive Model 0% 10% 10% 0% 10% 10% 30% 10% 0% 15% 5%
    Conservative Model 0% 15% 15% 15% 5% 5% 27% 8% 10% 0% 0%
    Retirement Model 5% 20% 10% 10% 5% 5% 27% 8% 10% 0% 0%

  14. Swedroe (2001): efficient portfolio suggests an efficient frontier portfolio in his excellenty book. He presents one model for an efficient frontier equities model. He then suggests that you can not simply use a generic optimized model since the results will vary depending which time periods you use. However, this represents a reasonable first start that can be adjusted according to your comfort with various asset style classes (i.e. stocks styles - not bond styles). You could adjust the equities/fixed ratios depending on your risk tolerance. The basic equities portfolio is divided into 70% domestic and 30% international. He suggests that if you are not comfortable with 30%, you can decrease it (say to 20% to 25%). He recommends DFA primarily and also some Vanguard funds as well as a few other funds. We have suggested representative funds here from Vanguard where the funds exist with links to Morningstar. There are several Vanguard bond funds thay will work depending on the bond yield curve and your tax situation.

    % Short-term Bonds
    VBISX, VFSTX, VMLTX, or VIPSX
    % REITs
    VGSIX
    % Large Cap
    VFINX
    % Large Cap Value
    VIVAX
    % Small Cap
    NAESX, VTMSX
    % Small Cap Value
    VISVX
    % Foreign Large Value
    VDMIX
    % Foreign Small
    DFISX
    % Foreign Small Value
    DISVX
    % Emerging Markets Stocks
    VEIEX
    % depends on risk tolerance 10% 10% 20% 10% 20% 10% 5% 10% 5%

  15. Malkiel (2003): efficient portfolio suggests four age related portfolios in his excellent book. We have suggested representative Vanguard funds with links to Morningstar. Note: the International index VGTSX has the VEIEX included. The VDMIX does not. In these computations, we assumed you use the VDMIX for Internernational stocks and buy the VEIEX separately.

    Age in life cycle
    % Money market, or
    Short-term Bonds (1-1.5 yrs)
    VBISX, VFSTX, or VMLTX,
    % TIPS Bonds
    VIPSX
    % Bonds
    VFIIX, or VBMFX
    % REITs
    VGSIX
    % US total Stock Market
    VTSMX, FSTMX, or POMIX
    % International Stock Market
    VGTSX, VDMIX, FSIIX, or DIISX
    % Emerging Markets Stocks
    VEIEX
    Mid-20s 5% 5% 15% 10% 43.33% 16.67% 5%
    Late 30s to early 40s 5% 5% 20% 10% 36.67% 18.33% 0%
    Mid 50s 5% 5% 32.5% 12.5% 33.75% 11.25% 0%
    Late 60s and beyond 10% 5% 45% 15% 25% 0% 0%


Home Page: http://www.geocities.com/finplan825/

1