The analysis has been
updated to include 2008
Election Fraud Analytics. Obama won by 9.5 million recorded votes – but the
landslide was denied.
Part I (Election
Fraud Analytics) is a comprehensive statistical analysis of the 2004 and
2006 elections. In 2000, Al Gore won by
several million more votes than his recorded 540,000 margin. In 2004, John
Kerry actually won by 8-10 million votes. In the 2006 midterms, a Democratic
Tsunami gave them control of congress, but the landslide was denied; they
did much better than the official results indicate. And the True Vote
does not include the disenfranchised, the great majority of whom are Democratic
minority voters.
Part II contains the original ‘TruthIsAll FAQ’ with my
responses included. The author of the FAQ, Mark Lindeman, has tried to debunk
the work of independent analysts who maintain that pre-election and exit polls
are powerful statistical evidence that Kerry won handily and that the 2006
Democratic landslide was denied. Mark has posted on the Democratic Underground
as ‘On the Other Hand’, on Daily KOS as ‘Hudson Valley Mark’ and numerous other
forums.
Bush had a 48.5% average approval rating on Election Day.
The Nov.1, 2004 Election
Model, based on the final state and 18 national pre-election polls,
projected Kerry as the 51.8-48.2% winner of the two-party vote. His expected
337 electoral vote was calculated as the average of a 5000 election-trial Monte
Carlo simulation. The projection model was confirmed by the state and national
exit polls.
Edison-Mitofsky provided four state exit poll measures. Kerry won the first three; Bush won the Final:
1) WPE 51.8-47.2% (unadjusted)
2) GEO 51.0-48.5% (adjusted to incoming recorded votes)
3) Composite 50.3-49.1% (12:22am-adjusted to pre-election polls)
4) Final 48.5-51.1% (matched to recorded vote)
WPE is the only unadjusted (‘pristine’) measure. It was based on the average discrepancy between the exit poll result and recorded vote for all state precincts which were polled. Measures (2) and (3) are adjusted estimates which incorporate pre-election polls and recorded votes. The final state exit polls were forced to match the recorded votes, therefore implying ZERO election fraud. Why should we believe them? And why bother doing exit polls at all if they will just assume that the recorded vote count was the True Vote?
Some say that exit polls are not designed to predict the True Vote but to provide a demographic snapshot of the electorate. But if that’s the case, and the recorded vote count is corrupted, then so are the demographics.
Kerry also had a steady 51-48% lead throughout the National Exit Poll timeline: at 4pm (8349 respondents); 7:30pm (11027); 12:22am (13047) - after the polls closed. Of course, Bush won the Final NEP by 51-48% (13660 respondents) which was posted at 2pm the day after the election. The Final NEP was forced to match the Recorded Vote count with impossible weights and implausible vote shares, so why should we believe it?
Excel–based models were developed to calculate the True Vote. Links to the models are provided in this
document. They confirm the massive
documented evidence of elections which were compromised by a combination of
uncounted and miscounted votes. The essential input for the models
include state and national recorded votes, pre-election and exit polls, Census
total votes cast and mortality rates. Users can enter their own assumptions and
then view a ‘sensitivity analysis’ of resulting state and national vote shares
and margins. The scenarios are displayed in numeric tables and charts. Many
examples are provided in this document.
The Election Calculator and Interactive Election Simulation models determined that Kerry probably did 1-2% better than the exit polls indicate.
The Election Calculator is an Excel model for analyzing 1988-2004 elections. Users can override the pre-set default assumptions for voter mortality, uncounted vote rates, prior election voter turnout and vote shares of prior and new voters. The base case scenario indicates that Kerry won by nearly 10 million votes with a 53.2-45.4% vote share. Interested readers can download the model, review the base case scenario and then enter their own assumptions. Sensitivity analysis tables provide an instant view of vote shares over a range of input assumption scenarios.
The Interactive 2004 Election Simulation Model (also Excel) enables users to run simulations based on state and national pre-election and exit polls. State exit poll vote shares are based on the following user options: 1) WPE, 2) Best GEO and 3) Composite (12:22am). The National Exit poll data includes the 12:22am update and the 2pm Final. The only pre-election model assumption is Kerry’s projected share of Undecided Voters. The only state exit poll inputs are the method (1, 2, or 3) and assumed cluster effect. A Monte Carlo simulation consisting of 200 election trials generates both the projected popular and expected electoral vote. The probability of Kerry winning the election is the percentage of trials in which Kerry received at least 270 EV. Additional model analysis includes National Exit Poll timeline, Gender vote, exit poll response optimizer, Census data and the Ohio exit poll.
In the 2006 midterms, a Democratic Tsunami gained 31 congressional seats. But they actually did much better than that. A regression trend analysis of 120 pre-election Generic polls (all won by the Democrats) projected they would win by 56-42% and gain over 40 seats. The 7pm National Exit Poll update (55 Dem-43% Rep) confirmed the pre-election trend. But the next day, the Final NEP was once again forced to match a corrupted vote count with implausible weights and vote shares. The Democratic margin was cut in half to 52-46%. The fraud resulted in the loss of 10-20 seats.
Dec.12, 2000 is a day that will live in infamy. Bush needed the help of five right-wing Republicans on the Supreme Court to stop the recount in Florida and enable him to steal the election. There has been an ongoing controversy regarding the 2004 election. State and national pre-election and exit polls pointed to a Kerry victory. Those who claim that Bush won fair and square are relentless in their attempts to thrash polling analyses which suggest that fraud occurred. Since the media will not release tell-tale precinct-level data, analysts must rely on publicly available polling data. And they have determined that the polls provide powerful statistical evidence of fraud. ’Voter fraud’ has been shown to be a non-existent distraction from the evidence of massive ‘election fraud’. Voters don’t fix elections, corrupt officials do. The corporate media was quick to dismiss the statistical polling analyses and claims of election fraud by ‘spreadsheet-wielding Internet bloggers’ as another left-wing conspiracy theory.
This is what Richard
Morin , a Washington Post staff writer, wrote on Thursday, November
4, 2004:
An Election Day filled with unexpected twists ended with a familiar question: What went wrong with the network exit polls? In two previous national elections, the exit polls had behaved badly. Premature calls by the networks in Florida led to a congressional investigation in 2000. Two years later, a computer meltdown resulted in no release of data on Election Day…. Results based on the first few rounds of interviewing are usually only approximations of the final vote. Printouts warn that estimates of each candidate’s support are unreliable and not for on-air use.….That is why the early leaks anger Joe Lenski of Edison Media Research, which conducted Tuesday’s exit poll with Mitofsky International for the National Election Pool, a consortium of the major television networks and the Associated Press…. After the survey is completed and the votes are counted, the exit poll results are adjusted to reflect the actual vote, which in theory improves the accuracy of all the exit poll results, including the breakdown of the vote by age, gender and other characteristics’.
The media never considered the possibility that the votes may have been miscounted and that the exit polls were essentially correct. They just took it for granted that the vote count was accurate (i.e. the election was fraud-free). After all, isn’t that why the exit poll results are always adjusted to match the vote count? Of course, they never did an analysis which would have shown that the adjusted Final NEP weights were impossible and that the adjusted vote shares were implausible. And they would have come to the same conclusion as the spreadsheet-wielding bloggers: the election was stolen.
A dwindling number of naysayers continue to argue that the exhaustive statistical analysis of 2004 pre-election and exit polls by a number of independent researchers does not provide convincing evidence that the election was stolen. Their ‘case’ consists of faith-based theories, factual avoidance, misstatements and misrepresentations. And they cannot reconcile the many statistical anomalies which all point to massive fraud. Some of their ‘explanations’ include the following: Kerry voters were more likely to respond to exit pollsters; exit poll interviewers sought out Kerry voters; over 7% of returning Gore voters told the exit pollsters that they voted for Bush in 2000; pre-election and exit polls are not pure random samples; exit polls are not designed to detect fraud in the United States; early exit poll results overstated Kerry’s vote; women voted early and Republicans voted late; Gore voters defected to Bush at twice the rate that Bush voters defected to Kerry. None are supported by factual data and all have been refuted.
Uncounted Votes
In every election, millions of mostly Democratic votes are never counted – and are a significant contribution to the exit poll discrepancies. According to the 2000 Census, approximately 5 million votes were never counted. Since they were from heavily democratic minority districts, if Gore won 75% his true margin was close to 3 million votes - not the 540,000 recorded. And that does not include the very real possibility that a certain percentage of recorded Gore votes were switched to Bush. The 2000 election was not even close, although the media would like us to believe it was. Only the 5-4 Supreme Court decision was close. Consider the Florida 2000 fiasco. Bush ‘won’ by 537 ‘official’ votes - before the recount was aborted. But 185,000 spoiled (under and over-punched) ballots were never counted. Since approximately 65% of them were intended for Gore, he actually won the state by at least 60,000 votes.
According to the U.S.
Census, 125.7 million votes were cast in 2004. The recorded vote was 122.3m
and 3.4m were uncounted. The Census survey margin of
error is 0.30%. Therefore there is a 97.5% probability that at least 125
million cast votes. According to detailed information provided by investigative
reporter Greg
Palast, 3.006m votes cast were never counted. They were comprised of 1.389m
spoiled ballots, 1.091m provisional and .0.526m absentee. The 0.40 million
(0.31%) discrepancy between the Census and Palast matches the Census MoE.
First-time Voters
They claimed that the vaunted 2004 Republican GOTV
campaign brought Bush millions of new Christian fundamentalist votes. But
they failed to note that since 1992, according to the National Exit Poll, the
Democrats won first-time voters by a 14% average margin. Ruy Teixeira wrote
about it in The Emerging Democratic Majority. Furthermore, the Democrats had a remarkable
voter
registration and GOTV effort. In
the strongest Democratic areas, the pace of new registration was 60 percent
higher than in 2000, while it was just 12 percent higher in the heaviest
Republican areas.
Undecided Voters
They rejected the evidence that late undecided voters
virtually always break for the challenger. But world-class pollsters Zogby and Harris,
who have a combined 60 years of experience, indicated that late polling
showed that Kerry won 67-75% of undecided voters. The National Exit
Poll also reported that Kerry won a clear majority of undecided voters. This
was not unusual; historical evidence indicates that undecided voters break for
the challenger over 80% of the time - especially when the incumbent is
unpopular. Bush had a 48.5% average approval rating on Election Day. The final
Zogby polls in nine battleground
states had Kerry leading by a 50-45% average. He was projected to win all
nine by 53-46% - but won only five by 50-49%. The margin of error
was exceeded in six of the nine states, a 1 in 52 million probability.
This is what the
Gallup poll said about undecided voters:
‘In the final USA
TODAY/CNN/GALLUP poll before the election, President Bush held a 49-47 edge
over Sen. John Kerry when the undecided voters were not allocated to a
particular candidate. When Gallup, using
a statistical model that assumes that 9 of 10 of those voters would support
Kerry, allocated the voters, the poll ended as a dead heat with each
candidate garnering 49%. The Gallup
allocation formula is based on analyses of previous presidential races involving
an incumbent’.
Bush Approval
Rating
They dismissed the significance of the Bush 48.5% approval rating on Election Day. But historically, incumbents with approval below 50% lost re-election (Ford, Carter, Bush I) while incumbents above 50% won (Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton). The near-perfect 0.87 correlation between Bush’s monthly approval rating and average national poll is further evidence. The correlation was confirmed when Kerry won the 12:22am National Exit Poll by 51-48%. The Final Exit Poll forced a bogus 53% Bush approval weighting to in order to match the vote count.
Final 5 Million
Recorded Votes
They can’t explain these anomalies in the recorded state vote shares: 1) the strong correlation between the state exit polls and late vote shares (Kerry led in both), 2) the small discrepancies between the exit polls and the late vote shares, and 3) the consistent pattern of a higher Kerry share of late votes compared to his initial share. But it’s further evidence that the ‘pristine’ exit polls were close to the true vote. Bush won 51.0% of the initial 117.28m votes; Kerry won 53.0% of the final 5.0m. Kerry exceeded his initial vote share in 38 states, including 15 of 19 in the battleground. A false impression was created early that Bush was winning as the first reported votes came in from the East. But even as the recorded votes were being reported on TV, state and national exit polls showed that Kerry was winning the popular and electoral vote. The vote-rigging apparently ended before the final 5m were recorded; Bush had already ‘won’ the electoral vote and held a 3.5m lead in the popular vote. After the final 5m votes were recorded, his ‘mandate’ declined by 0.5m to the official total of 62.04-59.03m.
Weighted Average
State Vote shares
They claimed that Bush led in the pre-election state and national polls. But they forgot to calculate the national vote as a weighted average (based on the voting population) of the state poll shares. State polling data shows that Kerry led the weighted average from July to Election Day except for a brief period in September. Bush led the unweighted average. Kerry also led the national pre-election polls. In both poll sets, before undecided voter allocation, Kerry led by less than 1% nationally. But he led by 3% in the battleground states.
Vote Share
Projection and Electoral Vote Simulation
They disputed the fact that the Nov.1, 2004 Election Model projections were accurate and that the final pre-election polls matched the exit polls. But assuming that Kerry captured 67-75% of the undecided vote, the pre-election state (Kerry 47.9 - Bush 46.9%) and national polls (Kerry 47.2 - Bush 46.9%) closely matched the 12:22am NNational Exit Poll (50.8 -48.2%). The state and national models projected Kerry as the winner by 51-48%, matching the 12:22am NEP and the weighted average state exit polls (51.8-47.2%). The Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation (5000 election trials) forecast that Kerry would win 320-337 electoral votes, assuming that he captured 60-75% of the undecided vote. Pollsters Harris, Zogby and the National Exit Poll said he won the undecided vote by 60-75%. The pre-election projections were also confirmed by the state and national exit polls in the Interactive Election Simulation Model.
Random-selection
and Margin of Error
They declared that exit polls were not true random samples. But Edison-Mitofsky state in the notes to the 2004 National Exit Poll that respondents were randomly-selected with a 1% overall margin of error. And the pre-election polls all provide a margin of error based on the number of respondents.
National Exit Poll
Timeline
They forgot about the Law of Large Numbers. Kerry led the National Exit Poll by 51-48% at 4pm (8349 respondents), 7:30pm (11027) and 12:22am (13047). But Bush won the 2pm Final NEP (13660) by 51-48% through the use of impossible weights and implausible vote shares which were required in order to match the recorded vote.
Matching Exit Polls
to the Recorded Vote
They dismissed the accuracy of the early exit polls. But it’s standard operating procedure that the final exit polls are always fixed to match the recorded vote even if it means using impossible weights and implausible vote shares. This implies that the recorded vote was fraud-free – not exactly a reality-based assumption. Preliminary state and national exit polls are ‘contaminated’ when they are forced to match a corrupt vote count.
Gender
They need to explain how Bush sharply increased his share of Democratic women voters while his share of Republican males declined. One would normally expect to see a positive correlation in the Demographic Trend between the two groups. But to believe that Bush won by the 62-59m recorded vote, one must believe that his ‘mandate’ was provided by women who in 2000 either a) did not vote, b) voted for Gore, or c) voted for Nader. According to the NEP, Kerry won new voters by 57-41%, Gore voters by 91-8% and Nader voters by 64-17%. So why should you believe it?
Exit Poll Bias
They noted a built-in Democratic bias in the exit polls. But they did not account for uncounted and switched votes. Exit polls overstate the recorded Democratic vote in every election. Part of the discrepancy is due to uncounted votes in heavily Democratic minority districts. In addition, solid documented evidence exists of direct vote-switching directly at DREs and on central tabulators where touch-screen, optical scanner, lever and punched card votes are counted. Republicans manufacture the voting machines which can easily be hacked.
Margin of Error and
the Cluster Effect
They said that the margin of error used in calculating the probabilities of the exit poll discrepancies was too low. But even assuming a 60% ‘cluster effect’, the probabilities were still near zero. The WPE-adjusted state exit polls discrepancies, even assuming a 30% cluster effect, exceeded the margin of error in 24 states for Bush. The Composite (12:22am) discrepancies exceeded the margin of error in 16 states - all in favor of Bush. Not a single state deviated beyond the MoE for Kerry. Assuming a zero cluster effect, the probability that the MoE would be exceeded in 16 states by Bush is 1 in 19 trillion. A probability sensitivity analysis gave Kerry a 98% probability of winning a popular vote majority - even assuming a 50% cluster effect.
Urban Legend
They can’t explain The Urban Legend myth: How did Bush gain vote share in heavily Democratic urban locations, yet lose share in highly Republican small towns and rural areas? An analysis of the 2000 and 2004 NEP location-size demographic shows a 9% increase in the Bush share of the heavily Democratic urban vote and a 3% decline in share of the heavily Republican small town and rural voter. And how did he manage a 3% increase in the suburbs which has been trending Democratic in recent elections?
Regions and Time
Zones
They cite Bush voter non-response and Gore voter false recall as reasons why the margin of error was exceeded (using the average state WPE) in 29 states for Bush and in just one for Kerry. All 21 Eastern Time Zone states red-shifted to Bush and 14 exceeded the MoE. But the probability that the exit poll margin of error would be exceeded in 29 states is ZERO.
Red-shift vs.
Blue-shift
They overlooked the fact that 41 states switched to Bush from the final pre-election polls to the recorded vote. But none of the 10 states which switched to Kerry was a battleground state. Forty-three states red-shifted to Bush from the 12:22am exit polls. Oregon was the only battleground state which shifted to Kerry – by less than one percent. It’s also the only state in which voting is done by mail. Was this all just a coincidence, a case of bad polling or an indication that fraud occurred?
They neglected to ask why six of the eight states which deviated to Kerry from the exit polls were strong Bush states: TN (1.63), TX (1.65), SD (1.67), ND (2.51), KS (2.37) and MT (0.22). The exit poll discrepancies (shown in parenthesis) were all within the exit poll margin of error. But only two competitive states deviated to Kerry: OR (0.75) and HI (1.25). Is it just a coincidence that Oregon is the only state which votes exclusively by mail (100% paper ballots), and that any discrepancy in that state would be small and could favor either Bush or Kerry? And is it just a coincidence that Hawaii was not exactly a critical state?
They agreed that the vote-rich battleground states would decide the election. But was it just a coincidence that six deep-red states deviated to Kerry and not a single blue state? Or was it because Bushco did not want to explain a 50-state red-shift? Did they disregard the six states knowing that Kerry would not come close to winning them? Instead they focused on thwarting a nationwide blue-shift in competitive states. The beast was in the East, the rest were in the West.
Voter Mortality
They suggested that up to one million more Gore 2000 voters died than Bush voters had a major impact on the Bush ‘mandate’. They cited Gore’s 51-47% advantage in the Final NEP for the 60+ age group and calculated a 1.15% annual voter mortality rate (4.60% over the four years between elections). Therefore, approximately 5m of the 110.8m who cast votes in 2000 died prior to Nov 2004. But Gore’s 51% share of 5m is 2.55m; the Bush 47% share is 2.35m; the 0.20m difference is inconsequential. The Election Calculator showed Kerry winning by 10m votes with 53.5% of the popular vote.
Party ID
They need to explain why the Party ID mix changed from a 3-5% Democratic edge over the last 4 elections to an even 37/37 split in the Final National Exit poll. The 12:22am NEP update had a Party ID mix of 38% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 27% Independents; corresponding Kerry vote shares were 91%, 7% and 52%. In the Final NEP (which was forced to match the recorded vote) the mix was changed to 37/37/26 with Kerry vote shares of 89%, 6% and 49%, respectively. The adjustments turned Kerry’s 51-48% win into a 51-48% loss. But the changes to the weights and vote shares left footprints which exposed the fraud. A Pew study shows that the Democrats have held a steady 4-5 point Party ID advantage in the four presidential elections since 1992. And the 1992-2004 Final National Exit polls indicate that the Democratic candidate won first-time voters by an average 14% margin. It’s only logical to conclude that a solid majority of first-timers were Democrats. So why should we believe the net 3% red-shift in weights in the Final NEP?
Reluctant Bush
Responders
They hypothesized that Bush voters were reluctant to respond to exit pollsters. But the rBr theory was contradicted by the 2004 Final Exit Poll. In the Final, Bush 2000 voters comprised 43% of the respondents, compared to 37% for Gore voters. And rBr was also contradicted by a linear regression analysis: exit poll non-response rates increased going from the strongest Bush states to the strongest Kerry states, which suggests that non-responders were Kerry voters. So they had to come up with another explanation. It was a perfect Hobson’s choice. If they believed the final Exit Poll (which Bush won by 51-48%), they would have to accept the weights which indicated that Bush voters were over-represented. But then they could not claim the rBr theory.
Mathematically
Impossible Voted 2000 Weights
They claimed that it was standard operating procedure to re-weight the exit polls based on the recorded vote. But the Final NEP ‘Voted in 2000’ weights (Bush 43/Gore 37%) were mathematically impossible. Bush 2000 voters could not have comprised 43% of the 122.3mm votes recorded in 2004, since 43% of 122.3 is 52.6mm and Bush only had 50.5mm votes in 2000. The 43/37 weights were irrelevant and misleading since they were mathematically impossible. Furthermore, since approximately 1.8mm Bush 2000 voters died prior to the 2004 election, the maximum number who could have voted in 2004 was 48.7 million, even assuming an impossible 100% turnout. This physical, incontrovertible mathematical fact totally confounded the naysayers. And the longer they tried to refute the facts, the sillier they looked.
The Democratic
Underground ‘Game’
They finally agreed in the Democratic Underground Game thread that the Final NEP Bush/Gore weights were impossible and came up with a new set of feasible weights. But they had to compensate for the change to feasible weights in order to match the recorded vote by inflating the Bush vote shares to implausible levels. This was necessary even though the shares were previously inflated in the Final with impossible weights in order to match the recorded vote. It was a feeble, last-ditch Hail Mary pass to justify the Bush ‘mandate’. They had to deal with an inconvenient truth: the Final National Exit Poll inflated the Bush tally by more than 4 million votes. But even though the weights were mathematically impossible, the exit-pollsters had no choice but to use them hoping that no one would notice. And so they lost the ‘Game’. Their use of implausible vote shares meant that they could not come up with one believable Bush win scenario.
To match the recorded vote, they were forced to make the following implausible assumptions:
1) 14.6% of Gore 2000 voters defected to Bush.
The 12:22am NEP reported that 8% defected; it was changed to 10% in the 2pm Final.
The probability of a 6.6% discrepancy is ZERO.
2) Kerry won 52.9% of those who did not vote (DNV) in 2000.
The NEP reported a 57-41%
spread; it was changed to 54-45% in the Final.
3) 7.2% of Bush 2000 voters defected to Kerry.
The NEP reported that 10% defected; it was changed to 9% in the Final.
False Recall
They knew that every theory they had proposed to explain the exit poll discrepancies was refuted. So they were forced to suggest ‘false recall’ as a last-ditch explanation and cited a post-election NES 600-sample survey to account for the impossible Final 43/37% Bush/Gore weights. This was the basis for their claim that 14.6% of Gore 2000 voters defected to Bush in 2004. They implied that approximately 6.6% of Gore 2000 voters (8.6% higher than the 12:22am NEP defection rate) misrepresented their vote and told the exit pollsters they voted for Bush in 2000. The reason: a long-term bandwagon effect: Gore voters wanted to associate with the ‘winner’.
But ‘false recall’ is not a plausible explanation since a) Gore won by 540,000 votes, b) according to the pristine 12:22am NEP, Kerry captured 91% of Gore voters and 10% of Bush voters, c) Bush had a 48.5% approval rating on Election Day 2004, d) false recall is not applicable to pre-election polls and e) the pre-election polls matched the exit polls. Why would Gore voters want to be associated with Bush? Even if returning Gore voters lied about their vote in 2000, it’s irrelevant. What is relevant is a) their factual 2000 recorded Gore vote and b) that 91% said they just voted for Kerry. We use this factual data to compute feasible and plausible weights by adjusting the 2000 recorded vote for mortality and estimated 2004 turnout.
They also need to explain how the ‘false recall’ hypothesis applies to other demographics. In the 12:22am NEP, 13047respondents were asked who they just voted for: Kerry won the Gender demographic by 50.78-48.22%. But only 3200 of the 13047 respondents were asked how they voted in 2000. But Kerry won the other 10,000 respondents (who were not asked who they voted for) by 51-48%. This totally contradicts the ‘false recall’ argument. Why would 10,000 respondents tell the exit pollsters that they just voted for Kerry if they wanted to be associated with Bush?
Feasible Weights
and Plausible Vote shares
They maintain that the base case assumptions in the True Vote Model are not feasible and plausible. But the assumptions were based on feasible weights applied to plausible 12:22am NEP vote shares. The model determined that Kerry won by 66.1 - 58.4mm (52.6 - 46.4%). Applying the weights to the 2pm Final NEP (which used inflated Bush vote shares to match the vote count) Kerry was still the winner by 3.4 million (51.2 - 48.4%). The True Vote Model input consists of the following: 1) feasible ‘Voted 2000’ weights (ratio of Kerry, Bush, Nader/other and new voters). The 2000 recorded vote was reduced by 3.5% for mortality and 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004; 2) 12:22am NEP vote shares; 3) 3.4mm uncounted votes: 125.7mm reported by the 2004 Census Bureau less 122.3mm recorded; 4) 2.6mm (75%) of the uncounted votes were for Kerry; historically, the majority of uncounted votes have been in Democratic minority districts.
Switched Votes
The True Vote model also determined that 4.5m (6.8%) of Kerry’s true vote must have been switched to Bush. The simple formula is True Vote = Recorded + Uncounted + Switched. Kerry’s True Vote was 66.1m, his recorded vote 59.0m and 2.6m were uncounted. The model also concluded that Kerry won 336 electoral votes. This result matched the Nov.1 Election Model which used Monte Carlo Simulation to calculate Kerry’s expected electoral vote.
The Election Incident Reporting System (EIRS)
According to the 2004 EIRS, 86 of 88 touch screen vote switching incidents were from Kerry to Bush, a 1 in 79 sextillion probability.
Sixteen Million New
Bush Voters
They failed to explain how Bush found 16m new voters (DNV2k) to reach 62m in 2004. He had 50.5m votes in 2000. But only 46m returned to vote in 2004. Approximately 2m Bush voters died and an estimated 2.5m did not vote, assuming a 95% turnout. According to the 12:22am National Exit Poll, Bush won 41% of 26.3m new voters. The 19% discrepancy was 11 times the 1.72% margin of error. The probability of the discrepancy is ZERO. It’s important to note that a solid majority of new voters were Democrats and Independents who gave Bush an approval rating much lower than his total 48.5% average on Election Day 2004.
They need to explain how Kerry lost the popular vote in 2004, even though he won a solid 57-41% share of new (DNV2k) voters. Of the DNV2k voters, Kerry won first-time voters by 55-43% and other new voters by 61-37%. Gore won the popular vote in 2000 even though Bush captured new (DNV96) voters by 52-44%. But this is quite strange, especially since Gore won first-timers (52-43%) and Bush won others (71-26%). How could there have been such a wide discrepancy in vote share between first-timers and others? Did Bush really win 71% of other new voters?
2000 Voter Turnout
They belittled a comprehensive sensitivity analysis which indicated that Kerry won all plausible scenarios of voter turnout and new voter share. But assuming 12:22am NEP vote shares and 100% Bush 2000 voter turnout, Gore voter turnout had to be 73% for Bush to tie Kerry and 64% to match the recorded 62-59mm vote.
Implausible Vote
Shares
They need to explain these implausible changes in Bush NEP vote shares from 2000 to 2004:
-The Bush share of females increased by 4.2% while his share of males decreased by 0.2%
-His share of white females increased by 5.0% while his share of white males decreased by 0.9%
-His share of non-white females increased by 4.0% while his share of non-white males increased by only 0.76%
-His share of female independents increased by 1.8% while his share of male independents decreased by 5.6%
Didn’t females vote 54-45% for Kerry? Didn’t over 90% of blacks vote for him? Weren’t independents for Kerry by 52-44%? Why would independent males defect to Kerry at triple the rate that independent females defected to Bush? Didn’t Nader voters break 3-1 for Kerry?
Swing vs. Red-shift
They claimed that the raw exit poll data which have not been made public indicates that there was no tendency for Bush to do better in 2004 relative to 2000 (‘swing’) than he did in the 2004 exit poll (‘red-shift’). They presented their analysis in a swing vs. red-shift scatter chart and concluded from the flat regression line that the exit poll discrepancies did not indicate fraud. But they did not consider the following factors: According to the 2004 National Exit Poll, Kerry won 71% of returning Nader voters compared to 21% for Bush. A similar split would have increased Gore’s margin by 1.4mm. Assuming that 75% of approximately 5 million uncounted votes were for Gore, his margin increases by another 2.5 million. When added to his recorded 540,000 vote margin, Gore’s adjusted margin becomes 4.5 million. And that does not consider the effects of vote-switching. We know a lot more about vote-switching than we did in 2000. It’s very likely that Gore votes were switched to Bush. But assuming zero vote-switching, Gore’s adjusted, true margin was close to 4.5 million: 2.5m uncounted + 1.4m Nader + 0.54m recorded. They never normalized the 2-party state vote shares in calculating ‘swing’. Actual adjusted swing was 3.9%, recorded swing 2.0%; red-shift 4.1%. An adjusted swing vs. red-shift bar graph displays the deviations. Another scatter chart shows that adjusted swing exceeded 4% in 18 states while red-shift exceeded 4% in only 4 states. The naysayer swing vs. red-shift argument is just another ruse meant to divert, confuse and mislead.
Ohio
They argued that the Final Ohio exit poll does not indicate fraud. But they ignored the massive documented evidence of uncounted and switched votes, apart from voter disenfranchisement. And two election workers were convicted of rigging the recount. Kerry won the 12:22am Ohio exit poll Gender demographic (1963 respondents) by 52.06-47.94% and the WPE-adjusted exit poll by 54.2-45.4%. But he lost the 2:06pm Final (2020 respondents) by 50.94-49.06%. In the Final, vote shares and weights were changed in favor of Bush to match the miscounted Ohio recorded vote. This was just like the final 2pm NEP in which vote shares and weights were changed from the 12:22am update in order to match the miscounted National vote. Two models confirmed that Kerry won Ohio. The first was based on 12:22am NEP vote shares with weights adjusted to the Ohio 2000 recorded vote. Kerry was the 51.74-48.26% winner, within 0.32% of the exit poll. The second was based on uncounted (3%) and switched vote (6.15%) assumptions applied to the recorded vote. Kerry was the 52.6-47.4% winner. An exhaustive statistical study of actual ballots in Ohio’s Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) indicated that 6.15% of Kerry’s votes were switched.
Using the original 12:22am Ohio exit poll weights for the following demographics, it would have been necessary to inflate the Bush vote shares to implausible levels to match the recorded vote. So the weights were adjusted in favor of Bush to minimize the change:
First-time voters
Of the 14% who were first-time voters, 55% were for Kerry. Are we to believe that he won just 47% of the other 86%?
When Decided
Of the 21% who decided in the month prior to the election, 62% voted for Kerry. Are we to believe that he won just 45% of the 79% who decided earlier? Did Bush lead by 10% in any of the early polls?
Party ID
The weights changed from 38D/35R to 35D/40R, a 7.9% shift. With the original weights, Bush needed 17% of Democrats to match the recorded vote. He had 8%.
Ideology:
Liberal/Conservative weights changed from 21/32 to 19/34, a 9.5% shift. With the original weights, Bush needed 23% of Liberals to match the recorded vote. He had 13%.
Voted for Senate
Democratic/Republican weights changed from 43/57 to 36/64, a 16.3% shift. With the original weights, Bush needed 14% of those who voted for the Democratic candidate. He had 7%.
Florida
They ignored Florida’s implausible vote count by machine type and party registration. In 2000, Bush supposedly ‘won’ by 547 official votes. Given Gore’s 70% share of 180,000 uncounted under/over votes, Gore won by at least 60,000 votes. In 2004, Bush supposedly ‘won’ by 52-47%, a 368,000 vote margin. The final Zogby pre-election poll had Kerry winning by 50-47%. Kerry led the WPE-adjusted exit poll by 50.9-48.3%.
Dan Rather’s voting machine expose showed that poor-quality paper used in punch card machines was a major cause of election fraud in heavily Democratic precincts, thus illustrating a previously unknown method used to hack mechanical voting machines, whether punch card or lever.
The Democrats had a 41- 37% registration advantage in Touch Screen (TS) counties and a 42-39% edge in Optical Scan (OS) counties. Kerry won the TS counties (3.86mm votes) by 51-47%, but Bush won the OS counties (3.43mm votes) by a whopping 57-42%. Kerry’s low vote shares in the three most heavily populated (and Democratic) TS counties (Palm Beach, Broward, Dade) are highly suspect. Florida voter registration by party is the same in TS and OS counties, so we aren’t comparing apples and oranges. The TS county vote share matched the 12:22am NEP to within 0.43% for Bush and 0.31% for Kerry. The OS county share deviated by 9.0% for Bush (307,000 votes) while the Kerry discrepancy was -8.1% (278,000).
Several models indicate that Kerry won Florida. The first was based on voting machine type (optical scanners and touch screens) and used 2004 NEP ‘Party ID’ vote shares with party registration percentage weights. Kerry won by 50.7-47.7% (closely matching the exit poll) - a 221,000 vote margin. The second was based on uncounted (1%) and switched vote (6.9%) assumptions applied to the 2004 recorded vote. Kerry won by an identical 221,000 votes. In a third calculation based on 12:22am NEP vote shares with weights adjusted based on the Florida 2000 recorded vote, Kerry was a 52.6-46.7% winner. In a fourth calculation, based on uncounted (3%) and switched vote (7%) assumptions applied to the recorded vote, Kerry was a 51.3-48.2% winner. Assuming that Kerry won 70,000 of 96,000 Nader 2000 votes (based on his 71% NEP share), he had a built-in 100,000 vote advantage on Election Day … assuming all the votes would be counted. Given a 1.0% margin of error, the probability is 1 in 12.7 trillion that Kerry’s total TS county vote share would exceed his total Florida share by 4.2%.
New York
They cherry-picked the final NY pre-election poll in a feeble attempt to prove that the pre-election polls didn’t match the exits. Kerry won the final NY pre-election poll by 59-40%. The recorded vote was 58.5-40.2%. But they cannot explain how Kerry won 66% of the final 497,000 votes recorded. They claimed that the NY pre-election poll was correct and that the WPE-adjusted exit poll (Kerry 64.1- Bush 34.4- Other 1.5) was wrong. The Exit Poll MoE is 2.6% for 1452 respondents (3.2% if a 30% cluster effect is assumed).
They claimed that the NY pre-election poll matched an accurate recorded vote. Their proof: Lever voting machines have a low 1% spoilage rate. But they cannot provide evidence that ALL the votes were counted accurately in ALL the precincts and they failed to consider absentee and provisional ballots. Historical evidence indicates that Lever machines are vulnerable to rigging. Dan Rather’s voting machine expose was a clear example. In Florida 2000, poor-quality paper used in punch card machines was a major cause of election fraud in heavily Democratic precincts, thus illustrating a previously unknown method used to hack mechanical voting machines, whether punch card or lever.
There are four fundamental flaws in their argument.
They failed to consider the NY 2000 vote: Gore 60.2 - Bush 35.2 - Nader 3.6. Their argument implies that the 2004 recorded vote was fraud-free and that 100% of returning Nader 2000 voters defected to Bush - clearly an impossible scenario. In fact, according to the 12:22am NEP, Kerry won Nader voters by 71-21% and 10% of Bush voters defected to Kerry while just 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush. Adjusting the NEP weights based on the NY 2000 recorded vote and assuming 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry won by 63.6-35.1%.
They ignored the theoretical margin of error. It’s well-known that exit polls are more accurate than pre-election polls. There was a 5.1% discrepancy between Kerry’s NY pre-election (59%) and exit poll (64.1%). Since the MoE is 4% for a typical 600-sample pre-election state poll, there was a 95% probability that Kerry’s True vote was in the 55-63% range. The NY exit poll 3.2% MoE (30% cluster effect) implies there was a 95% chance that Kerry’s True vote was in the 60.8-67.2% range which would fall within the MoE of both the NY pre-election and exit poll. On the other hand, the weighted average of 51 state pre-election polls (adjusted for undecided voters) matched the National Exit Poll to within 1%. Once again, it’s the Law of Large Numbers taking effect.
They failed to consider that Kerry’s vote share was 10% higher in NY than nationally. The Election Calculator, which accounts for voter mortality, turnout and uncounted votes, determined that Kerry won by 64.0-34.5%. The assumptions were as follows: Gore and Kerry won 75% of the uncounted votes (5% of total cast); Kerry won 94% of Gore voters, 12% of Bush voters, 61% of new (DNV2k) voters and 68% of returning Nader/other voters. A sensitivity analysis shows that if Kerry won 90-98% of returning Gore voters and 57-65% of DNV2k, his NY vote share ranged from 61.3 to 66.7%.
They implied there was zero fraud in claiming that the recorded vote was the true vote. An analysis of the effects of uncounted and switched votes indicates that Kerry won by 63-36%. If 2% of total votes cast were uncounted (75% to Kerry), then 7% of Kerry votes were switched to Bush. The uncounted vote assumption is lower than the 2.74% national average (NY uses lever voting machines).
Exit Poll Response
Optimization
Four independent mathematical methods applied to three distinct sets of precinct, national and location-size exit poll data each produced the identical result. The USCV simulation; 1250 precincts by partisanship; location-size; NEP Voted in 2000 were in near-perfect confirmation.
The Exit Poll Optimizer employed the Excel Solver algorithm to obtain a feasible solution for the 2-party vote (Kerry 52.15-Bush 47.85%). The data constraints included the recorded vote (Bush 51.24-Kerry 48.76%), response rates and within precinct error (WPE) categorized into five partisanship groupings: Strong Bush, Bush, Even, Kerry, Strong Kerry.
The Optimizer confirmed the USCV simulation. Both models analyzed summary exit poll data for 1250 precincts supplied by Edison-Mitofsky and in so doing, debunked the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis. The Optimizer also exactly matched the 12:22am National Exit Poll ‘Voted in 2000’ demographic two-party result: Kerry 52.15- Bush 47.85%. The identical result was obtained by running the Optimizer for five NEP location-size category groupings (Big Cities, Small Cities, Suburban, Small Towns and Rural, given the WPE for each category.
The 2006 Midterms:
Tsunami Denied
Except for the notorious 2006 FL-13 congressional race in
which 18,000 mostly Democratic votes were mysteriously missing, the evidence of
massive fraud in the midterm elections is hardly mentioned in the corporate
media.. The fraud probably cost the Democrats 10-20 congressional seats.
The 2006 National Exit Poll ‘How Voted in 2004’ weights were changed from 47 Bush / 45 Kerry at 7pm on Election Day to 49/43 in the Final NEP at 1pm on the following day. Once again, just like in 2004, the exit pollsters had to match the vote count by expanding the weight spread from 2% to 6%! This had a major effect in cutting the Democratic margin in half - from 55-43% to 52-46%. As noted earlier, the 2004 12:22am NEP ‘How Voted in 2000’ Bush/Gore 41/39 weights were changed to 43/37 in the 2pm Final, turning a 51-48% Kerry victory into a 51-48% loss.
If plausible 49 Kerry/ 46 Bush weights (based on
the 2004 NEP) are used, the TRUE Democratic margin becomes 56.7-42.1%, exactly
matching the 120 pre-election Generic
Poll trend line. Was this just a coincidence or another confirmation
that the pre-election polls matched the 7pm National Exit Poll? You decide.
This is an
extensive report of e-voting failures from votersunite.org.
This Pew 2006 Election Analysis of voting ‘glitches’, ‘snafus’ and ‘hiccups’ describes the chaos state by state.
This Survey of
Pollworker and Voter Experience Reveals Pervasive and Recurrent Failures among
Computerized Voting Systems.
An extensive analysis of ballots cast in the Ohio 2006 Senate Race by Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D. proved that the recorded vote count was impossible
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