david.nicholson's
883 Des Morton week
885 John Wright
Wednesday Night Salon Magazine vol #884February 10, 1999(Last one of 17 years - 17 x 52 = 884!) |
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Couchiching Winter Conference
Margaret Lefebvre
Margaret Lefebvre reiterated her invitation to all present to attend the Couchiching Institute on Public Affairs Conference entitled --The New Europe and the Atlantic Relationship. The conference will look at the Canada/US/Europe triangle of economic, democratic and political values. Speakers will include Conrad Black, Rt. Hon. Michael Portillo, Ambassador Robert Hunter, and the Hon Donald S. MacDonald. The Conference is scheduled for the afternoon of February 23rd at The Design Exchange in the TD Centre in Toronto.
At $395, this is a steal compared with the Economic Conference in Davos at $30,000US!
More information on the couch web site.
Crisis in Healthcare
Although the recent problems in Emergency Rooms across the province had been mentioned as one of several topics for the evening, the presence of first-time guest, Dr. Mark Roper, Interim Director of Family Medicine at the Montreal General, led David to scrap the proposed agenda and move directly to this subject of universal interest.
Dr. Mark Roper
Dr. Roper gave an eloquent first-hand account of the recent problems and put forward some provocative proposals for rectification of what ails the system. At the General, for instance, they were unable to have two Operating Rooms open at the same time. This was causing delays of three days or more for a leg fracture to receive the needed treatment. Suggestions coming from Jean Charest and others include opening over 800 extra beds, and using CLSCs, where possible. However, it has proved very difficult to recruit MDs to work in the CLSCs. List of CLSCs
Stephen Poloz |
There is a profound reason for the Medicare problem - namely it is run by government, which does not have the medical experience to address the fundamental problems. Among the critical issues are the Collective Agreement, which gives job security to workers after only two years of work. Orderlies have been described by some as being in the "Club Med of Medicine" getting paid, but doing little work. Other members covered by the Collective Agreement can, by timing their pregnancies carefully, receive some 6 years of salary for little or no work. Another problem is that the Island of Montreal (514) medical centres attract many off island (450) patients, while funding does not reflect this additional burden on the system. This situation has strong political overtones, as the swing ridings are those just off the island.
In Dr. Roper's opinion, what is needed is a "Supreme Court of Medicine" to arbitrate any disputes and make clear decisions on funding and other critical matters. The "Medical Supreme Court" should renegotiate the Collective Agreement to clear up these abuses.
The "Minister of Health" defended the situation saying it was inherited from the previous (Liberal) government.
It was duly noted that this statement is the usual defense of any government - the problem has always been inherited from the party previously in power. However the "virage ambulatoire" policy is solely due to the current PQ government and it has become abundantly clear that totally inadequate systemic planning has brought on the current crisis. Injections of cash following the kind of crises we have witnessed over the past couple of weeks are not the answer. The answer lies in planning of the entire healthcare network.
Others mentioned that February appears to be the traditional month of hospital congestion (no pun!) as school children and the elderly fall prey to flu, respiratory diseases, more people fall and break limbs, etc., and wondered why this seasonal fluctuation seems never to be taken into account. Another voice suggested that it is essential that thought be given to ways to reduce drug costs and also to giving more credence to alternative medicine solutions.
One guest voiced his opinion that Medicare does work and that taxes should NOT be cut, but maintained so that more could be spent on Medicare and healthcare planning, particularly as we are losing highly qualified practitioners and staff to other countries (particularly the U.S.). Québec nurses have been offered insulting raises and many are looking to Florida and other States for better working conditions and tax rates. Other suggested solutions were to follow the US example by having lots of inconvenient forms to complete that discourages people from claiming medical injuries and/or expenses.
Me Julious Grey
Diana raised the point of the nurses who walked off the job in Emergency Rooms as a protest against the working conditions which they declared were unsafe for both patients and medical staff. While this may have been a dramatic publicity gesture, and justified a short media event, it may prove to be self-defeating as the fact that patients were left unattended is unacceptable.
Dr. Mark Roper
A medical specialist commented that Canada may well be moving to a Two-Tier system. The current system is not optimal, there is little continuity of care, and little follow-up. Patients with friends get better treatment and in many cases are willing to pay the extra for this.
One person pointed out that there has been much propaganda against Medicare. Medicare and Education should be a top priority of the Government and there should not be any two-tier system. Anecdotes of patients going to Costa Rica for cosmetic surgery, a talented surgeon getting only 2 OR days in 4 months, and heart patients waiting years to get a pacemaker were met with. "Sick people are bad lobbyists!"
On a final note: we are reminded that whilst the Emergency Room crisis in Québec appears due in large measure to the "virage ambulatoire", the crisis in healthcare is not unique to Québec. There have been equally appalling stories from Toronto and B.C.
The Federal Budget
By next Wednesday, the Budget Speech will have been delivered and the experts will have digested the main points. Meanwhile, Wednesday Night was treated to the usual excellent summary of what to expect in the Budget to be handed down by Paul Martin on Tuesday 16th February.
Stephen Poloz
The surplus will be very close to $10 billion, with $15 billion having been paid down on the national debt, which will stand at $570 billion. There are, of course, numerous demands on the surplus. Most likely scenario will include $2 and $3 billion extra allocated to Medicare this year and some $2 billion per year in the future. Also probable is a reduction in the personal tax rate of 3%, by removing the 3% surtax. This will be accompanied by a reduction in the basic tax deduction. New incentive programs to improve productivity will be introduced.
Paul Martin, the Finance Minister, will commit $11.5-billion in today's federal budget for new spending on medicare over the next five years, in a bid to repair the financially strapped health-care system. Mr. Martin's sixth budget will focus on boosting health care, which has been in decline since 1995, when the Liberal government slashed $6.5-billion in transfers to the provinces for medicare, welfare, and post-secondary education.
Excessive taxes put good times at risk: Ottawa
The federal Industry Department is claiming in a series of position papers that high taxes are creating an unsustainable roadblock to economic growth. The department's admonition, contained in documents outlining Canada's flagging productivity, coincides with a budget this afternoon that offers middle-class taxpayers only modest relief, and opts instead for a major increase in program spending, namely health care.
One NA Dollar?
Friday, February 5, 1999Hits 67.08 cents (U.S.) as European rate cuts send investors toward booming North American economy
Bill C-55
A short discussion followed on Bill C-55 regulating the US/Canada split run of magazines, which basically have no new Canadian content. Some felt there was no need to protect Canadian culture and no real advantage to protectionism in general.If you have not seen the The Roper Letter menu click here. We hope that this is the start of a series of writtings from Dr. Mark
Words of Thanks
John Ciaccia, André Pasternac, Julius Grey and Diana all thanked Mark Roper for his insight into the medical system, and his graphic portrayal of a senior Health Care bureaucrat!Minuted by Professor Gerald Ratzer
Razer
Edited by Diana Thébaud Nicholson
Monday 22 February 1999 Bouchard should get a life Premier's outrage over health-care funding formula is overwrought L. IAN MACDONALD
Tuesday 16 February 1999 Now ambulance service suffers from squeeze Emergency-room overcrowding AARON DERFEL "The man argued with his wife and said he didn't want to go to the hospital because of the state of the emergencies that he'd seen on TV and read about in the papers," said Dr. Mark Roper.
"I just want to make it clear that if there's anyone out there thinking they have a heart attack and think they're going to be waiting - that's not going to happen.
"We have a triage system in which a nurse interviews every patient that comes in," Roper said. "If it's deemed urgent or code red, they go right to the front of the queue and they're treated immediately."
Tuesday 16 February 1999 CLSCs are not the cure All pretense that Quebec's 146 community health clinics could even partially replace hospital emergency wards was dropped last week. When Health Minister Pauline Marois announced there would be $20 million in new money to bail out the overflowing hospital emergency wards, not one cent was allocated to the community clinics.... known in Quebec as CLSCs (from CentreLocal de Services Communautaires)
Thursday 11 February 1999 Another week of ER waits
Then $20-million boost kicks in
Montreal-area residents can expect another week of overcrowded emergency rooms before stopgap measures announced yesterday kick in, the chairman of the regional health board admitted yesterday.... Health Minister Pauline Marois has earmarked $6.9 million in emergency funding for the Montreal region out of a total of $20 million to be spent across the province. That's up from $15 million Marois had promised almost two weeks ago to reduce the rampant ER congestion that has persisted since the Christmas holidays.
To really improve ER care, "certainly multiples of $15 million" will be needed, said Dr. Hugh Scott, head of the MUHC, which this year is running a $29-million deficit.
Dr. Mark Roper
The money would be best spent on expanding long-term care in other centres, agreed Dr. Robert Primavesi, acting ER head at the General.
Scott argued that health care is a network, and "if we're a network, you cannot fix the entire thing with just one piece" like ER.
Sunday 22 November 1998 They are recommending demolition of the Royal Victoria Hospital's newer buildings, though some are ingenious examples of Modern architecture, and turning the others into condominiums. A McGill professor argues that it's a mistake to change the vocation of this site from serving the public to providing luxury housing (saved) copy in Dr.htm
The on-going and worsening crisis in health care, particularly Emergency Rooms, topic. Like Jean Charest, we urge debate on the issue. ER staff cry out for help Nurses fear that lives are at risk as overcrowding crisis worsens and there are Too few GPs to carry load . Try to find one when yours retires.
Me Julious GreyThursday 11 February 1999 Free advice Two university researchers have found some hospitals in Quebec are so inefficient that they spend as much as 50 per cent more to deliver the same level of care. Their study suggests that as much as $500 million a year could be saved with greater efficiency. (saved)
Me Alan Mass
'Cut taxes so we can compete'
BioChem Pharma is unable to attract top scientists, Bellini saysALISON MACGREGOR
The paper
The head of the country's largest biopharmaceutical firm says he can't attract senior scientists to Canada and that the company has been forced to open facilities in Boston in order to expand its vaccine business.
GAZETTE / Bellini: BioChem Pharma can compete on salary, but not on taxes.
Monday, February 01, 1999
Magazine bill perpetuates stifling status quo
A journalist says change would help readers and writers
David J. Thomas
National PostOttawa's Bill C-55 to outlaw Canadian advertising in American magazines would continue the suffocation of the Canadian magazine sector and mock the government's own insistence that "Canadians must have access to Canadian voices and Canadian stories."
Canadian magazine readers and writers need protection, but not against American periodicals. What we really need saving from is the dull duopoly that dominates Canadian magazine publishing by panicking our government.
...The proposed legislation would merely prop up the old duo of Rogers Communications Inc. and Telemedia Communications Inc. whose magazines are just poor copies of American publications anyway.
Harrowsmith Country Life and Equinox are siblings whose births, near-deaths and recent revivals reveal much about the magazine business in Canada. Both of these Canadian magazines set new standards of quality and compensation for Canadian writers and, for a time, proved that Canadian magazines can compete, not just at home but in the United States....
The two magazines were taken over as profitable, growing concerns by Telemedia, publisher of Canadian Living, TV Guide, Homemaker's and other mass-market consumer magazines. In a few short years, Telemedia shut down the U.S. edition of Harrowsmith and drove the Canadian circulations of both magazines into the ground.
Having ruined them as businesses and expunged them of editorial originality, Telemedia discarded them to a tiny Montreal publisher. Rapidly, Malcolm Publishing Inc. has revived their editorial quality and restored circulation....
Robert Stewart Royal
Robert Stewart's 'Menu of stories'... = great reading
Like most specialized magazines, they depend entirely on freelance writers, and they pay promptly and well. Rogers' flagship Maclean's'... standard schedule of freelance rates has been replaced by a policy of paying as little as possible to as few writers as possible.
For years Maclean's has worked to keep circulation down by letting subscriptions of rural and elderly readers quietly expire without the aggressive follow-ups applied to the young and the urban. This makes for better demographics to show advertisers. It's a valid business strategy, but the government has no business supporting it with a ban on competition.
"... if I were publishing Maclean's or Canadian Living, I would definitely be very nervous," says Michel Nadeau, publisher of Equinox and Harrowsmith Country Life. "We are in a very specialized market and our advertisers will still be with us. But the mass market advertisers of Maclean's might well prefer to go to Newsweek."
Other magazines that have little to fear from a loss of mass-market advertising include Canadian Geographic, Explore, All-Canadian Mutual Funds, Canadian Gardening, Good Times and Beautiful British Columbia. Each has a truly Canadian editorial mission. None is published by the duopoly.
Robert Stewart RoyalSure, they represent a fragmentation of the magazine market in Canada. And that's a good thing. Niche magazines provide better service to readers, advertisers and writers.
When was the last time Rogers or Telemedia launched a new magazine, rather than buying one and spoiling it? Throwing the magazines of Rogers and Telemedia to the wolves of competition will either force them to become better or kill them off. Either outcome would be good for Canadian magazine readers and writers....
David J. Thomas is a former senior writer for Maclean's.
Me Alan Mass
12 February 1999 ERs just symptom of muchdeeper problems JENNIFER ROBINSON It's become an all-too-familiar story in Quebec. Every few months, another crisis erupts in the provincial health-care system and out comes the health minister, cash in hand and an air of urgency for the cameras, to announce a Band-Aid solution or a quick fix.
Seat-of-the-pants management is not exactly a good way to run a $12-billion-plus health-care system. Yet that is what Quebecers are getting. Marois's announcement this week was just the latest instalment.
Robert Ackerman
Friday 12 February 1999 CLSCs seek injection Cash from Quebec would help ease ER mess, they say ALLISON LAMPERT And because of a provincial salary cap on doctors working in major cities during their first three years of practice, CLSCs in the Montreal region are often unable to recruit physicians, argued Arthur Sandborn, president of the Confederation of National Trade Unions' Montreal regional chapter. The CNTU represents 7,000 CLSC workers in Quebec.
Thursday 11 February 1999 Playing by the rules The federal government has wisely moved to defuse a potentially nasty trade dispute with the United States over magazines. Now, it is up to the United States to show some good faith, too.
Heritage Minister Sheila Copps yesterday moved to introduce an amendment to Bill C-55 that would delay implementation of the contentious magazine law. It's a constructive gesture that will give the two countries more time to work out their differences and avoid imposition of $1 billion in retaliatory trade measures threatened by the Americans against Canadian exports.
Bill C-55 goes too far! ..The United States needs to understand, however, that it must play within the rules. {what rules .. John Turner remindes us that we must play when they change the rules ... besides if our mags. can't commpete ... don't force us to read them ...let us choose DTN]
The Stock Market
Thursday, February 11, 1999
Baril takes blame for prime minister missing funeral
'My responsibility is to anticipate what is going to happen'
Robert Fife, Ottawa Bureau Chief
National PostCanada's leading general sought to shoulder the blame for the prime minister's absence from King Hussein's.
Jean Chretien, the Prime Minister, holds up a piece of paper in the House of Commons that says "I'm Sorry" in response to his not being able to make King Hussein's funeral in Jordan.
Gen. Maurice Baril, the Armed Forces chief of staff, called a news conference an hour before the Commons Question Period began to say he was at fault for the prime minister missing the funeral that was attended by most of the world's leaders. [Chretien (65) can ski but is not well enough to be PM! DTN]
John Ciaccia
Average Canadian take-home pay has fallen by 8 per cent since 1990, even as pay grew by 10 per cent in the U.S. Over the same period, the value of the Canadian dollar dropped to a record low against the U.S. currency.
David Mitchell
... It is even possible that Europe will regain its past grandeur as economic centre of the world.
Canada, meanwhile, can escape the pain of facing up squarely to its economic deficiencies, but it will also escape the rewards.
Do see our One NA Dollar debate
our Medical Web ..Super Hospital
David Nicholson
Wednesday, January 27, 1999 Quebec balks at feds' health demands Alberta Premier Klein backs province in opposing any conditions set by Ottawa on funding Quebec remains opposed to signing an accord with Ottawa spelling out conditions for increased health care funding, and the province is not alone.
Robert Ackerman
David Mitchell
Monday 18 January 1999 Defence cuts gone too far Gordon Giffin, the U.S. ambassador, stated the obvious when he suggested, ever so diplomatically, that it's time for Canadians to start spending more on defence. Defence Minister Art Eggleton has been saying as much for a while. So have many other Canadians who have been shocked by reports of potentially dangerous equipment and impoverished soldiers.
Monday 18 January 1999 Politics by the book by WILLIAM WATSON Writer Roger Shattuck has a nice piece in the latest issue of the Atlantic Monthly. Titled "When evil is cool," it argues that, as its subhead says, "Our culture, in particular the institution of the university, has contrived over the past few decades to transform sin into a positive: transgression, a term that, as used by postmodern critics, refers to an implied form of greatness."
Monday 25 January 1999 Copps's curious trade war by L. IAN MACDONALD More than 40 per cent of Canada's GDP is in exports, and more than 80 per cent of that is in shipments to the United States. [get with it Copps ..retire for good this time you have cost us too much DTN]
For Bank Stock Forecasts
thanks to Andrew de Courcy-Ireland Scotia McLeod & DLJ
Andrew de Courcy-Ireland
================ 30 ===================== Thursday 4 February 1999 Outlook: cloudy this year, sunny until 2020 JAY BRYAN Martin Barnes, an influential interpreter of financial trends as managing editor of The Bank Credit Analyst, has a neatly balanced answer: once we swallow some nasty medicine, the future looks remarkably prosperous for as far as the eye can see. This uptrend may be weaker in Canada than in the high-tech mecca to the south, but it will still be positive.
Barnes's long-run optimism is based on the idea that the business cycles we're all aware of - which typically alternate several years of growth with a year or so of recession - aren't the only ones that affect our economic outlook. (saved)
Tuesday 2 February 1999 Is market built on basics or bubble? JAY BRYAN Over the past few months, the unstoppable vitality of the U.S. economy has become a source of wonder in a world in which growth is faltering almost everywhere else.
This is good news for Canada, of course, since we are so closely tied to our big neighbour that four-fifths of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Saturday 30 January 1999 Markets get kick from U.S. growth... from 3.8 per cent in 1997. Economists expect the growth rate to fall to 2 per cent in 1999.
Monday 25 January 1999 Turf war Feds stepping on provincial toes WILLIAM WATSON (saved)
Recent evenings
876 Desert Fox 16 Dec, 1998
874 with Marcus Hope of Great Britan 2 Dec, 1998
873 pre vote with John Ciaccia 25 Nov, 1998
872 with John Ciaccia 18 Nov, 1998 by Michael Judson Edited Diana Thébaud Nicholson
871 with Martin Barnes 11 Nov, 1998 by Herbert Bercovitz Edited Diana Thébaud Nicholson
869 with J. Grey Oct 28, 1998 by Herbert Bercovitz and Andrea Lavergne Edited Diana Thébaud Nicholson
Grace Yang
Monday, February 15, 1999 Recommendation: Venture 1-Yr Target: No Target
Eaton's pre-announced that earnings would be below expectations. The Company attributed the disappointment to a number of year-end adjustments related to inventory, lower than anticipated sales, and a higher level of discounting over the Christmas season. With disappointing financial results, we believe that Eaton's will face a cash shortage in the coming year. We would consider this a venture situation. Due to the earnings risk, we have declined to place a target price on the shares.Federated Department Stores Inc., the third largest department store company in the U.S., announced that it is acquiring Fingerhut Companies (FHT-N). It was rumored that Federated would announce today that it was acquiring Eaton's. Expect Eaton's to trade lower today on this news.
Inco
(N US$11.69) - Q4 Above ExpectationsRecommendation: 2-Buy, Market Risk 1-Yr Target: $15.25 Inco reported a Q4/98 loss of US$0.13 per share, ahead of our $0.20 per share loss we had forecast. The $0.07 variance was attributable to Inco's copper hedging position and the faster than anticipated cost reduction efforts. Inco has decided to eliminate payment of quarterly dividends to its common shareholders until further notice. We continue to recommend purchase based on our expectation for improving nickel prices in 1999 and 2000. [Wednesday-Night does not agree]
Molson Companies
(MOL.A $21.75) - Steve HoltRecommendation: 2-Buy, Moderate Risk 1-Yr Target: $25.00 Q3 EPS from continuing operations was $0.19 as compared with our estimate of $0.25. The key variance was related to lower than expected brewing profitability as a result of higher selling and marketing expenses. Management is committed to reversing this trend in costs. The Sports and Entertainment segment also posted weak results. This business is no longer viewed as a legacy asset and strategic alternatives are being considered. We believe the necessary actions will take place to reduce costs and improve profitability and this is the basis for our investment recommendation. Continue to buy. [no hurry]
Oil & Gas Industry - D. Stenason
Canadian gas storage levels are at 60% of capacity. This is up from 49% of capacity a year ago. We believe that the Canadian gas story has been over hyped and that going forward, gas levered companies can only meet or disappoint expectations. Consequently, we would recommend that investors focus on the oil -levered producers. Our top picks are Imperial Oil, Petro-Canada, Canadian Occidental Petroleum, Canadian Natural Resources and Tri-Link Resources.
BASE METALS INDUSTRY - JOHN REDSTONE
We believe that base metal prices have bottomed and we look for prices to recover as we go through the year. The recent move in metals prices is reflecting a view that the western world economy is not going into recession this year based on more robust U.S. economic data. While Brazil is still having problems, steps are being taken to contain problems. Overall, inventory levels are very low and new production could be absorbed with small increases in consumption. Our top picks are: Alcan (AL $39.35) [see chart]Target: $52.50; Noranda (NOR $17.10) Target: $25.75; and Rio Algom (ROM $16.15) Target: $23.10. OTHER COMMENTS IN TODAY'S DAILY EDGE:
Beau Canada Exploration (BAU $1.80) - Cuba Well Spuds
CAE Inc. (CAE $8.80) - Civil Simulation Update
C-Mac Industries (CMS $25.65) - Q4/98 Results, Growth Continues
CTV Inc. (TV $22.60) - Trump Card
Falconbridge Ltd. (FL $16.00) - Q4/98 Results in Line
Gold - Gold at Critical Point
IPSCO Inc. (IPS $23.90) - Modestly Higher Q1
)
1917 - 1999
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© 1997 by David T. Nicholson
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Wed884MarkRoper.htm Sunday, February 21, 1999