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Introduction to Aeronautical Decision Making

We used to believe that good judgment was obtained only as a natural by-product of experience.  But we know good judgment can be taught.  Mistakes in judgment can be fatal.  Effective risk assessment requires a good Aeronautical Decision Making model (ADM). The fundamentals of ADM include: 

1. Identifying personal attitudes hazardous to safe flight;
2. Learning behavior modification techniques;
3. Learning to recognize and cope with stress;
4. Developing risk assessment skills;
5. Using all resources.
6. Evaluating your ADM skills. 

Detect – the fact that a change has occurred
Estimate – the need to react to or counter the change
Choose – a desirable outcome for the flight or situation
Identify – actions to control the change successfully
Do – take the necessary actions
Evaluate – the effects of the action to react to or counter the initial change 

All experienced pilots have fallen prey to, or have been tempted by, one or more of these dangerous tendencies or behavior patterns in their flying careers:

• Poor decision making based upon emotional response to peers rather than evaluating a situation objectively
• The inability to recognize and cope with changes in the situation different from those anticipated or planned.
• Clouds the vision and impairs judgment by causing a fixation on the original goal or destination combined with a total disregard for any alternative course of action. 
• Tendency to sneak a peek by descending below minimums during an approach. Based on a belief that there is a built in “fudge” factor or an unwillingness to admit defeat and shoot a missed approach.
• Pushing the pilot and aircraft capabilities to the limit by trying to maintain visual contact with the terrain while trying to avoid contact with it. (scud running)
• Continuing VFR into IFR conditions often leads to spatial disorientation or collision with ground/obstacles. It is even more dangerous when not instrument rated or current.
• Allowing events or the situation to control your actions rather than the other way around.
• Loss of situational awareness which results in not knowing where you are, an inability to recognize deteriorating circumstances, and the misjudgment of the rate of deterioration.
• Ignoring minimum fuel reserve requirements, either VFR or IFR, is generally the result of overconfidence, lack of flight planning, or ignoring the regulations.
• Unjustified reliance on the (usually mistaken) belief that the airplanes high performance capability meets the demands imposed by the pilot's (usually overestimated) flying skills.
• Unjustified reliance on the pilot's short and long term memory, regular flying skills, repetitive and familiar routes, etc.

• Flight while under the influence of alcohol or drugs is a never.
• Flight with a known medical deficiency is never expedient or legal (FAR 61.53).
• Flight outside the certified envelope is never safe.
• Flight with less than the required minimum fuel is never reasonable.
• VFR flight into instrument meteorological conditions is never justified.
• Descent below the applicable minimum enroute altitude is never justified.
• Casual neglect of any applicable checklist is never justified.
• Aircraft accident statistics show that pilots should be conducting preflight checklists on themselves as well as on their aircraft.

lllness. Any Symptoms?
Medication. Prescription or OTC drugs?
Stress. Psychological, money, health, family?
Alcohol. Within 8 hours? Within 24 hours?
Fatigue. Adequately rested?
Eating. Enough proper foods for nourishment?

Follow the rules.  Existing procedures, practices and regulations go a long way to mitigate accident statistics.

Resolving hazardous attitudes before they result in hazardous behaviours.

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