(Note : The following Special Report has been compiled by Michael Lindemann of CNI News. CNI News is a twice-monthly electronic journal addressing UFO phenomena, claims of human-alien contact, the scientific search for extraterrestrial life and related issues, including cultural and political implications of contact with non-human intelligence. Speaking from a UFO Research view point I can't speak highly enough of CNI News - it is by far the best source of up-to-date UFO Related information available. To find out more info, visit CNI News Home Page for subscription details. Do yourself a big favour and subscribe today : Karen Lyster)
SURVEY ON THE STATUS AND PROGRESS OF UFOLOGY
An Exclusive CNI News Special Report
How do leading UFO researchers and commentators see the current state of ufology? Is UFO research making progress toward real answers, or not? What is the perceived relationship between UFO phenomena and various other mysteries such as crop circles or the Face on Mars? CNI News decided to find out.
In order to gather a broad but manageable sample of views, we sent a survey to 50 individuals in North America, South America, the UK, Europe, Israel and Australia. All those invited to participate are publicly known for their contributions in one or more of the following areas: UFO field investigation, historical document research, clinical work with UFO experiencers, and/or UFO news reporting. CNI News received 32 responses to the survey by our cut-off date for this issue.
Though we believe that the views expressed by this group of 32 respondents is fairly representative of the spectrum of views among UFO researchers generally, we also recognize that a different group of respondents might have produced somewhat different results than those reported here. In particular, our sample group is strongly weighted to North America, with less representation from Europe and Latin America, and none from Asia, Africa or the Middle East.
CNI News thanks each of the following researchers for generously sharing their views with our readers (listed alphabetically by last name):
Jan Aldrich (USA), Paul Anderson (Canada), Keith Basterfield (Australia), Graham Birdsall (UK), Gildas Bourdais (France), Errol Bruce-Knapp (Canada), Bill Chalker (Australia), Scott Corrales (USA), Eric Davis (USA), Chad Deetken (Canada), George Filer (USA), Ray Fowler (USA), Stanton Friedman (Canada), Peter Gersten (USA), Stan Gordon (USA), Michael Hesemann (Germany), Patrick Huyghe (USA), Dr. David Jacobs (USA), Martin Jasek (Canada), Dr. Roger Leir (USA), Deborah Lindemann (USA), Dr. Bruce Maccabee (USA), Philip Mantle (UK), Jim Marrs (USA), Chris O'Brien (USA), Vitorio Pacaccini (Brazil), Karl Pflock (USA), Kevin Randle (USA), Chris Rutkowski (Canada), Michael Strainic (Canada), Whitley Strieber (USA), Kenny Young (USA).
Eleven questions were asked, some with multiple parts. Each question is shown below with the tabulated responses. Because some questions allowed respondents to offer more than one answer, percentages do not always total 100. Questions also invited additional commentary, but space in this issue of CNI News does not permit inclusion of comments elicited by every question. Instead, more than two-thirds of this issue is devoted to the commentaries offered in response to the last question of the survey.
SURVEY QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS:
QUESTION ONE: To the best of your knowledge, compared with the relatively active period of 1995-97, is the number of UFO sightings in North America in recent months:
a) down somewhat = 9.4%
b) down a great deal = 9.4%
c) about the same = 43.7%
d) up = 9.4%
e) not sure = 28.1%
QUESTION TWO: To the best of your knowledge, during the past 6 months, which places in the world have had the greatest or most significant UFO activity?
No choices were offered. Respondents volunteered the following:
USA/North America = 13 mentions
South America/Brazil/Chile/Argentina = 13 mentions
China = 10 mentions
Australia = 8 mentions
Mexico = 7 mentions
All over (no special concentration) = 4 mentions
Not sure = 4 mentions
Europe = 2 mentions
UK/Scotland = 2 mentions
One mention each: Asia, Central America, Israel, Italy, Southeast Asia
QUESTION THREE: During the past 6 months, what newly reported UFO case or cases strike you as the most significant? (Please list 1 to 5 cases.)
No choices were offered. Respondents volunteered the following:
Jan 5, 2000, central Illinois police sightings = 16 mentions
Late 1999, China sightings = 4 mentions
Feb 14, 2000, Mexico City police sightings = 3 mentions
Feb 1999, UFO abducts elk in Washington = 3 mentions
Mar 10, 2000, UFO over Lima, Peru = 2 mentions
Nov 4, 1999, UFO over Papua New Guinea = 2 mentions
10 other events received one mention each.
No significant events = 4 mentions
QUESTION FOUR: CNI News observes that large dark triangle (aka deltoid, boomerang, arrow-shaped) UFOs have been frequently reported in recent years.
Part 1) Do you agree that large dark triangles have been more commonly reported during the past several years than in the past?
Yes = 75%
No = 0%
Not sure or no answer = 25%
Comment: Several respondents said the reference to "recent years" vs. "in the past" was too vague. They suggested that a marked increase in sightings of triangle or boomerang-shaped UFOs should be dated from the early 1980s, to include the major wave over New York's Hudson Valley as well as the major wave over Belgium starting in 1989.
Part 2) What is/are the best explanation(s) for reports of large dark triangles?
a) misidentified conventional aircraft = 18.8%
b) secret "Black Project" aircraft = 71.9%
c) other misidentified phenomena (Venus, etc) = 3.1%
d) hoaxes or delusions = 3.1%
e) alien craft = 53.1%
f) other/unknown = 15.6%
QUESTION FIVE: Several efforts are underway to influence the U.S. government (and perhaps others) to be more forthcoming about UFO events, past and present. These efforts include lawsuits and calls for Congressional hearings.
In your opinion, are these efforts:
a) urgently necessary = 18.8%
b) useful/appropriate now = 31.2%
c) not useful/appropriate now, but maybe later = 15.6%
d) not useful at all = 25%
e) no opinion = 9.4%
QUESTION SIX: In your opinion, what should be the relationship between organized Ufology and the SETI (radio Search for Extraterrestial Intelligence) program?
a) close cooperation = 21.9%
b) separate efforts with mutual respect, sharing data = 59.4%
c) criticize SETI's assumptions and/or methodology = 6.2%
d) no relationship with or response to SETI = 9.4%
e) other/no opinion = 3.1%
QUESTION SEVEN: In your opinion, what should be the relationship between organized Ufology and NASA's Astrobiology/Origins program?
a) close cooperation = 28.1%
b) separate efforts with mutual respect, sharing data = 50%
c) criticize NASA assumptions and/or methodology = 3.1%
d) no relationship with or response to NASA = 15.6%
e) other/no opinion = 3.1%
QUESTION EIGHT: In your opinion, what is the degree of significance or relevancy to UFO research of the following? Specify for each: high, medium, low, none, not sure.
a) Theory/lore of Ancient Astronauts
High = 24.2%
Medium = 33.3%
Low = 24.2%
None = 18.2%
Not sure = 0%
b) Theory of panspermia
High = 21.2%
Medium = 27.3%
Low = 30.3%
None = 15.2%
Not sure = 6%
c) Crop circles
High = 21.9%
Medium = 15.6%
Low = 31.2%
None = 25%
Not sure = 6%
d) Livestock mutilations
High = 21.9%
Medium = 43.8%
Low = 12.5%
None = 21.9%
Not sure = 0%
e) Claims of alien abduction
High = 54.0%
Medium = 34.0%
Low = 0%
None = 6%
Not sure = 6%
f) Face on Mars
High = 12.5%
Medium = 15.6%
Low = 34.4%
None = 34.4%
Not sure = 3.1%
g) Area 51
High = 12.5%
Medium = 28.1%
Low = 31.3%
None = 18.8%
Not sure = 9.3%
h) Discovery of extrasolar planets
High = 24.2
Medium = 42.4
Low = 21.2
None = 9.2
Not sure = 3.0
i) Possible microbial life on Mars
High = 24.2
Medium = 36.4
Low = 21.2
None = 15.2
Not sure = 3.0
QUESTION NINE: In your opinion, what was the degree of progress achieved during the decade of the 1990s toward understanding the nature and significance of UFO phenomena?
a) great progress = 15.2%
b) some progress = 42.4%
c) no progress = 21.2%
d) went backward = 15.2%
e) not sure = 6.0%
QUESTION TEN: To make progress toward resolving the mystery of UFOs, which of the following kinds of effort are most productive? Rank each item in terms of Very productive, Somewhat productive, Not productive, Counter-productive, Not sure.
a) Historical document research
Very productive = 50%
Somewhat productive = 50%
Not productive = 0%
Counter-productive = 0%
Not sure = 0%
b) Search for new witnesses and information regarding major cases of the past
Very productive = 37.5%
Somewhat productive = 53.1%
Not productive = 6.2%
Counter-productive = 0%
Not sure = 3.1%
c) Investigating good new cases as they occur
Very productive = 81.3%
Somewhat productive = 18.7%
Not productive = 0%
Counter-productive = 0%
Not sure = 0%
d) Rigorous analysis of UFO photos and videotape
Very productive = 46.9%
Somewhat productive = 43.8%
Not productive = 6.2%
Counter-productive = 0%
Not sure = 3.1%
e) Attempting to make direct contact with alien/ET visitors
Very productive = 18.8%
Somewhat productive = 18.8%
Not productive = 31.2%
Counter-productive = 12.5%
Not sure = 18.8%
f) Political/legal action toward official disclosure of UFO secrets
Very productive = 21.9%
Somewhat productive = 53.1%
Not productive = 15.6%
Counter-productive 9.3%
Not sure = 0%
g) Stronger reliance on scientists and scientific methodology
Very productive = 68.8%
Somewhat productive = 15.6%
Not productive = 9.3%
Counter-productive = 3.1%
Not sure = 3.1%
h) Debunking charlatans and fraudulent cases
Very productive = 31.3%
Somewhat productive = 53.1%
Not productive = 9.3%
Counter-productive = 3.1%
Not sure = 3.1%
i) Other (please specify)
Several suggestions were offered, including:
-- compile catalogues of UFO effects cases and cases with significant features
-- cooperate with agencies that have observers in a position to detect UFOs (such as pilots, aviation control tower operators, Forest Service fire spotters, police, etc.)
-- attempt to correlate UFO sightings with various sensor networks
-- refine and systematize methodology for investigating abduction cases
-- confront the ideological/debunking communities for corrupt methodology
-- educate the public, scientific community, politicians
-- growth in human consciousness, compassion and scientific knowledge.
QUESTION ELEVEN -- COMMENTARY:
Briefly describe the current state of organized UFO research, its greatest problems, its most productive efforts or focus, its prospects for success in resolving the mystery of UFOs, and/or what must be done to achieve success during the next 10 to 20 years.
[Responses to this question ranged from a few lines to many paragraphs (only two respondents said nothing) and reflect a diversity of views as well as several points of broad agreement. The balance of this issue of CNI News is devoted to the 30 commentaries we received, offered in alphabetical order by author's last name. The writers are identified in every case.]
JAN ALDRICH (USA)
One word sums up the current state of ufology and its biggest problem: entertainment. People come to the subject to be entertained; entertained by sensational claims of aliens from other worlds or paranormal origins. The media looks at the UFO as entertainment and sensationalism to be exploited for higher ratings and higher circulation. UFO fans like drug addicts want ever higher doses of sensationalism. This is killing any serious efforts.
Disinformation agents are not outsiders; they are within the UFO field. They are the people who after some light in the sky is seen start talking about the coming interstellar war between the Rebel Reptilians and greys.
The noise to signal ratio in the first 25 years was high, but now noise continues to jump by an order of magitude each decade. Getting at the signal becomes ever more difficult.
Since most serious research is now done with pocket change and spare time, we cannot expect too much real progress. People want shortcuts to the answer. There are no shortcuts. To get answers there needs to be hard plodding work. There needs to be unexciting things like infrastructure. (One of the big problems with UFO organizations: the ufologists who run them spend valuable time working on administration rather than study and analysis.)
Most productive efforts currently involve historical research. Support here is almost totally lacking, but still progress continues. Huge reservoirs of material remain untapped.
Another unexciting area is indexing. We hardly know what we have. Ed Stewart's indexes of Flying Saucer Review and the MUFON Journal are important works. Barry Greenwood's inventory of UFO articles in popular, professional, and academic journals takes up 225 pages with over 7200 entries and dwarfs anything previously done. I had given up ever seeing this in database format, but now that is being done. Not as exciting as speculating about grand theories, but necessary work.
CUFOS' UFOCAT is now on CD-Rom and available to the public. Over 100,000 sightings which incorporated databases compiled by Vallee, Saunders and others -- raw data to be sure, but still highly useful and full of potential for further exploitation. Larry Hatch's *U* Database has over 13,000 significant ufo cases that can be searched for dozens of possible parameters. Loren Gross' extensive UFO history from 1896 to 1959 is now complete. Mark Cashman has compiled a number of important catalogues. Dominique Weinstein's radar database impressed the French government to the point where they have assigned an engineer to work on it. There are scores of similar small scale efforts. Incremental progress may be slow, but it is progress. "Small steps, small steps."
A demonstration project has started on listing official UFO documents. Concurrent with the inventory of documents comes the indexing of the documents' content. Such efforts will help trace official efforts. Another important by-product is a listing of references to other documents referred to in the material currently on hand. A listing of US official "ghost rocket" documents reveals 88 documents from various agencies, Army Air Force, Navy, State Department, Army Intelligence, etc. However, within these 88 documents are references to more than 120 other documents not yet recovered from an even wider group of agencies.
Researchers like to keep all documents from one FOIA or one agency together -- all the FBI documents in one file, all the HQ Air Force documents in another. However, once a chronological inventory of all documents is made, important developments will be revealed.
Field investigation of UFOs cases has suffered through recent years. Most investigations, if properly done, turn up IFOs. This can be discouraging. The press and the public want sensational cases. The press and some in the UFO field are willing to turn every light in the sky into some kind of great event. In recent years most of the media attention is focused on very poor cases. Most important evidential cases get very little publicity. Again, bad driving out good.
Effects and trace cases should be given the highest priority. Also, something like the old NICAP subcommittee system should be re-established.
Catalogues are important. In the Condon report a number of sensor networks are discussed. Most were not appropriate for UFO detection. Today, there are many more sensing networks, and even more important, data from these networks is not controlled by the government but is available to the public. Catalogues of effects cases are important. After constructing such catalogues, correlations with possible effects in sensing networks becomes possible. Here some financial support is needed.
Ufology should examine how ball lightning is investigated. While investigators receive many poor cases, databases are constructed of cases which are readily verifiable, literate and involve reliable witnesses. Other cases are discarded. Many in ufology insist on holding tightly to cases which have received wide publicity, but have little evidential value. They have some emotional bond with these cases. Lead with the best evidence, not necessarily the most exciting!
Huge amounts of data have been collected over the years; however, most UFO researchers leave no instruction about the disposition of their material when they pass from the scene. Large amounts of this material has gone to the dump or into the hands of people who care little about UFOs. "The Proceedings of the Sign Historical Group" contains a number of ideas and initiatives to preserve important UFO research. Succession planning, oral histories, cataloguing and preservation of audio and video tapes along with other initiatives are discussed. Again not exciting work, but necessary important efforts.
If we will end our love affair with TV producers and others in the media who have completely different agendas, we will be far better off. Media people are not interested in ufology except as a means of promoting ratings. They want to tell a story, their story. They are undetered by facts; the concept of the show is more important.
It is easy to dream up great costly projects which could solve the UFO mystery. It is also easy to promote exciting theories with little basis in fact. Simple proposals which can actually be accomplished with the spare time and the resources currently available should be our goals. Small things can and do lead to bigger things. Just look at Goddard's little experiments and what modern rocketry has become.
PAUL ANDERSON (Canada)
UFO (and related) research has come a long way in the last fifty or so years, but there is still a long way to go and much to be done. Scientific methods, imaging analysis techniques, etc. are far superior to what they were a few decades ago for example, but that is only one part of the equation.
There needs to be greater communication and cooperation between mainstream scientists and UFO (and related) researchers (as well as among ourselves!). We need to be grounded in science, but at the same time open to the possibility that some of the answers we seek may lie beyond "traditional" scientific thinking. By the same token the scientific community itself needs to learn to grow and expand its awareness. We can help each other, if we choose to. We can make much progress in solving many of these mysteries if we adapt the proper guidelines (although some of these phenomena always seem to stay one step ahead of us!).
There is also a need for greater understanding of these issues among the mainstream media and the public. Political initiatives are good and worthwhile, but may not succeed on their own if we are battling an entrenched, bureaucratic and covert cover-up (and exploitation, ie. for military applications) of these issues.
The increasing knowledge and resulting transformations may well come from the ground up, from the awareness and experiences of the people, forcing these issues to the forefront despite the attempts of some to " keep the lid firmly in place". How do we make this happen? In short, continue to open all available lines of communication, keep our feet on the ground and our eyes and minds open.
KEITH BASTERFIELD (Australia)
As with all human endeavours, the current state of organized ufo research is split by the diversity of opinions and perspectives put forward by individuals. This is both a strength and a weakness.
On the question of its greatest problems, my perception is that too many individuals in the field are unwilling or unable to carefully weigh up the evidence on many issues. They adopt a surface interest only, and wish to be entertained rather than doing some serious research.
I see the increasing use of scientific methodology and the search for physical evidence as the most productive effort occurring at the moment.
I think prospects for successfully understanding the UFO phenomenopn are good, but only if we encourage research into all potential explanations and eliminate these one by one. Only by understanding what the UFO phenomenon is not, will we build a case for what it must be.
What must be done over the coming years? A number of things spring to mind:
1. Increased encouragement of young professionals to take an interst in the subject, and use their areas of expertise to contribute to our understanding of the UFO phenomenon.
2. Encouraging, and funding, research into non-ETH viewpoints, if only simply to dismiss them as invalid based on proper scientific methodology.
3. Promoting, and funding, the work undertaken by non-U.S. researchers. The phenomenon has a global perspective.
GRAHAM BIRDSALL (UK)
Efforts have been made in the past to better organize UFO research, but despite many noble attempts to realize this 'Holy Grail' over the years, little of substance has come of it. Some may cite internal differencies and group politics as the primary cause, but the reality is that TIME and lack of RESOURCES has been our greatest handicap.
That plus an indifference toward the subject by science and the media in general has prompted very able individuals to drop out. The world is shrinking, and with new leaps in technology and communication comes a genuine opportunity to enlist global support for a larger unifying body that can embrace new ideas and practices. I would call for an International Conference made up of representatives of the major players, organizations etc., who could each contribute to realizing this goal. The Internet provides the means. Whether the will is there to carry it out and take Ufology forward is another matter. I like to believe we all aspire to the basic same aims and objectives. But it's no good just talking about it. It's got to happen if we are to succeed.
GILDAS BOURDAIS (France)
The current state of UFO research varies a lot from country to country It is very developed in the US, and good in other English speaking countries, Brazil, Mexico, and some European countries (Germany, Italy). On the other hand, it remains weak in France, probably for historical and cultural reasons: the French tend to be very rationalistic and skeptical minded. A recent effort to overcome the situation -- the "Cometa" Report, published in July 1999, signed by several high ranking military officers and rather prudent in its approach -- met either with silence in the media, or bitter critics. The irony is that these critics came mainly from ufological circles, which should have welcomed it! But it may have positive effects, behind the scenes.
For the next 10 to 20 years, I suspect that the situation is going to accelerate, mainly at the initiative of the "visitors", or whatever you want to call them. In the meantime, I would suggest three main lines of research:
First, listen carefully and study the testimonies of "abductees" and "experiencers". Researchers like Budd Hopkins, David Jacobs, John Mack, John Carpenter, Linda Howe and Joe Lewels, to name a few, have given precious contributions in recent years, even though they are not in agreement on everything.
Secondly, keep studying and listening to "insider testimonies" and documents on secret operations.
Third, reflect upon the major consequences of the ufo/alien presence, at the highest levels of our culture: scientific, religious and philosophical, sociological and political. We have to get prepared, if possible, for a very big cultural, "cosmic" shock: the "alien" presence and how to deal with it.
BILL CHALKER (Australia)
"Organized ufology" -- is there such a beast? It seems more like a disorganized rabble promoting every dubious claim that comes along. Speculate and promote first, investigate and research second seems to be the order of the day.
Until "ufology" can intelligently encourage its own critical peer review without resorting to politicking and acrimony, its foward progress is likely to be slow. There should be a focusing on physical evidence investigations and promotion of high quality intractable cases supported by quality investigations. We should use good solid retrospective historical investigations to preserve the past as a source of our subject's history and better yet as a useful calibration of what is to come. We should approach the subject armed with the lessons of the past and the benefits of new technologies and methodologies. Science can be our most powerful tool to help resolve the UFO enigma. We need to rally commitment, critical focusing and funding towards open scientific and multidisciplinary research.
SCOTT CORRALES (USA)
Perhaps the symptoms were there for all to see when UFO related publications began disappearing first in the UK and then in the US. In spite of the electronic wonders of the Internet, ufology is first and foremost a print medium, a child of the pulp magazines of decades past.
Its greatest problem a few years ago concerned the thirst for celebrity and money that seized the field; its greatest problem today is the non-specialized public's generalized apathy toward the phenomenon and the cynicism brought on by overexposure (grey alien t-shirts, toys, decals; UFO breakfast cereals; TV shows like the "X-Files"). Although "success" is a term that has to be defined in this field (a dead alien to give to National Academy of Science, for example?), perhaps efforts should be directed at a "back to basics" approach which would lead the field away from commercial opportunities (conventions, lucrative TV specials, etc.). Importance should be given to the fact that our efforts are directed toward giving our grandchildren and their grandchildren the background information necessary to grapple with the phenomenon. Ours is a task for the ages.
DR. ERIC DAVIS, Ph.D. (USA)
[Eric Davis is associated with the National Institute for Discovery Science (NIDS). He emphasizes that this is his personal and professional view only, not the official view of NIDS.]
The state of organized UFO research has greatly improved with the entry of the National Institute for Discovery Science into the phenomenology enterprise. The NIDS is fully funded and staffed by full-time professional scientists possessing multidisciplinary backgrounds and investigators with law enforcement background, who utilize forensic protocols and practices along with laboratory analysis that rigidly adhere to the scientific method. The NIDS staff is advised in all aspects of their scientific and forensic research and anaylsis by a world-class Science Advisory Board.
The greatest problem in organized research has been in the collection and analysis of data. Data gathering and scientific, forensic and pattern analysis of this data require adherence to strict protocols, critical thinking and a commitment to not mold the data into a rigid or narrow (preconceived) paradigm. Instead, one must consider all the possibilities for what the data can represent by "thinking out of the box". And much data needs to be gathered, to generate enough statistics, before identifying any clear trends or conclusions.
The UFO problem will never be solved unless this standard is followed. The quality and quantity of data has to improve tremendously in order for success to become possible in the future. Data gathering can be in the form of instrumented sensor arrays, quality (firsthand) eyewitness interviews, proven unconventional collection methods, and government agency generated data. Proactive measures for data gathering have to be taken, but this can be quite expensive and logistically difficult at times, and this usually proves to be a stumbling block for many organizations and investigators. The data and related analysis must then be subjected to peer-review by qualified experts in order to separate out the false positives. Controls and databases must be built to support data analysis.
Collaborations with government agencies and the scientific community are necessary and must be carefully fostered. Deliberate sensationalism, media attention and personal agendas are to be eschewed. Public outreach and education, and responsible press releases are to be encouraged.
Relations with select government agencies and personnel are to be fostered by confidence building measures based on respect and confidentiality in order to ensure cooperation, collaboration and sharing of information. Beating the government over the head with lawsuits and conspiracy-driven posturing will not release special access program data.
There are a lot of barriers for UFO researchers to overcome before reaching success, some external and some of their own doing. But success can be reached in the UFO field if we take steps to make the changes necessary to adopt professional standards and behaviors.
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